Time is running out for Yoweri Museveni, whose achievements in running Uganda for 19 years have allowed him to get away with political murder.
But the man once compared with Nelson Mandela for his statesmanship is increasingly being likened to Robert Mugabe for clinging to power.
Rock star and anti-poverty activist Bob Geldof put it succinctly: ”The president of Uganda, who implemented poverty measures and Aids measures that all worked with debt relief, is now trying to be president for life. Get a grip, Museveni. Your time is up.”
Domestically Museveni is under increased pressure from Ugandans who had hoped he might be the first leader in their 43-year postcolonial history to preside over a legal change of government.
”Museveni has paid lip service to multiparty democracy,” says Kiiza Besigye, leader of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC).
”In fact, he has built up an oppressive security network to crush any opposition. Now he is trying to tamper with the Constitution to make himself president for life.”
The FDC, formed last August, claims to be the largest opposition coalition in Uganda.
Its 40-person executive met in South Africa last weekend. ”We are meeting here because the government of Uganda is not interested in allowing a free environment for political activity,” Besigye said.
”I was forced to leave Uganda for fear of my life, after opposing Museveni in the 2002 presidential election.
”I want to return to Uganda as soon as it is safe to do so to participate in the run-up to the election scheduled for next March.”
An opinion poll conducted by the Monitor newspaper in Kampala this week found majority support for Besigye’s return.
The FDC plan of action combines domestic legal challenges and a defiance campaign with mobilising international support — particularly among Africans.
Museveni’s behaviour is doing much of the opposition’s job for it.
At the end of April Britain withheld R60-million in aid citing government delays in implementing multiparty democracy. Half of Uganda’s budget is financed by development aid.
Museveni disingenuously hit back, ordering officials to cut reliance on foreign aid and warning Britain they would look elsewhere for assistance.
In Washington last week, a United States-sponsored forum heard that his unconstitutional desire to retain power threatens his positive legacy.
Problems are coming from all angles. The government has been unable to contain the 17-year insurgency of the Lord’s Resistance Army in the north. Relations with Rwanda continue to deteriorate, culminating in his former comrade Paul Kagame cancelling a visit to Uganda this week. And last week Human Rights Watch identified Uganda as the major consumer and distributor of gold mined in the Democratic Republic of Congo by warlords.