The war in Iraq is creating a new breed of Islamic jihadists who could go on to destabilise other countries, according to a CIA report.
The CIA believes Iraq to be potentially worse than Afghanistan, which produced thousands of jihadists in the 1980s and 1990s. Many of the recruits to Osama bin Laden’s al-Qaeda had fought in Afghanistan.
The sobering caution came as a senior British anti-terrorism source warned that those trained in terror techniques in Iraq could use their newly-acquired skills in Britain at the end of the war.
The CIA report, completed last month, remains classified. But a CIA source on Wednesday confirmed that its broad conclusions, disclosed by The New York Times on Tuesday, were accurate.
The concern expressed in the CIA report contrasts with the optimism of United States Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld two years ago when he welcomed the prospect of Iraq as a magnet for jihadists.
The British Foreign Office and security services are sceptical about the CIA assessment that the insurgency could spill into other countries.
Security sources said there was only a “trickle” of recruits from Britain joining the insurgency in Iraq.
If there were to be a spill-over, Saudi Arabia is potentially vulnerable because many of the Arab fighters in Iraq originate from there.
Jamal Khashoggi, media adviser to the Saudi ambassador in London, said on Wednesday he agreed in part with the US assessment.
“It will be worse than Afghanistan,” he said. “We are talking about a very brutal type, a very weird version of Islam in Iraq. It is very scary.”
Khashoggi predicted that the approach of the Saudi government towards jihadists returning from Iraq will be very different from its approach to those returning from Afghanistan and Chechnya. “Any al-Qaeda coming back from Iraq will be hunted. It is not like they have gone to Chechnya and will be coming back as heroes. If they come back from Iraq and brag about it, they will be snatched by security in a day or two.”
The CIA report suggests the new breed of jihadists will be more deadly than those who fought in Afghanistan. It said that they have learned skills in urban warfare in Iraq.
While the number of attacks have diminished, they have become more deadly. More than 1 000 Iraqis and 120 US soldiers have been killed since the new Iraqi Cabinet was formed in April.
Insurgents once again demonstrated their capacity for inflicting carnage on civilians when they detonated four car bombs in western Baghdad on Wednesday, killing at least 23 people and injuring about 50. At least one car was driven by a suicide bomber. Earlier a bomb attack on a US military patrol killed three civilians. Responsibility was claimed by the al-Qaeda group led by Abu Musab al Zarqawi.