If the International Olympic Committee (IOC)’s much ballyhooed evaluation report on the five cities vying to win sport’s most glittering prize was what mattered, then next Wednesday’s vote in Singapore by the IOC’s rank and file would be a done deal.
Paris would be returning home in triumph and London, Madrid, New York and Moscow would be going home losers.
The French capital got almost perfect marks, followed by London, Madrid, New York and Moscow.
But the report will play only a minor role in who wins the 2012 Olympics.
Instead it will be geo-politics, self-interest, friendships and even revenge for past snubs which separate the winners form the losers.
Often it is the best bid that wins, but rarely is that the reason.
That is why all five bid leaders are starting to walk on egg shells as they close in on Singapore and try and snatch a vital last minute vote from the 100-odd IOC members who will decide their fate.
A single mistake, an unintended slight, a word out of place and two years, and millions of dollars spent selling their case all wasted.
Toronto discovered in the battle for 2008, how a misplaced joke could prove fatal.
Before the vote in Moscow, Toronto mayor Mel Lastman joked about an upcoming visit to see IOC members in Africa that he was afraid he might be put in a pot of boiling water and eaten.
Toronto bid leaders issued an apology almost as soon as the words were out of his mouth but when the bid team got to Moscow for one last push the ”joke” came back to haunt them.
”We spent a lot of time dealing with the Mel Lastman issue in Moscow. At one point he threatened to return to Toronto the day before the vote. John Bitove and I were called from the IOC hotel to meet with him for four hours the day before the vote … a complete waste of time,” explains James Villenevue who, along with Bitove, led the Canadian Olympic bide.
”In addition, all of our political leaders including our Prime Minister all wasted time dealing with our own internal issues versus interacting with the memberships.
”The key for all the bid cities dealing with this is to try and isolate and have a few members of the team manage the issue while keeping the external face of your bid focused on the membership.
”Most voters won’t care about a lot of this stuff unless you make it bigger than it really is or you ignore the sales aspect of your bid.”
It is a clear message for British Prime Minister Tony Blair, French President Jacques Chirac and Russian premier Mikhail Fradkov, who will be in Singapore to try and swing votes.
Conventional wisdom says victory is Paris’ to lose but former IOC president Juan Antonio Samaranch warned recently that the IOC is not short of confounding everyone and producing a surprise result.
And Samaranch knows better than anyone.
For the 2000 Games, he wanted a Beijing victory and pushed hard for it with members.
But when he read out the result — ‘The winner is Sydney’ — he could not keep the look of surprise off his face, even mispronouncing it as ”Sydeney”.
Sydney had managed to win over two IOC members on the eve of the vote to snatch a dramatic last gasp win.
And it is for that reason why naming a winner several days out is a dangerous game.
As the members begin gathering in the Raffles Hotel, there are growing suggestions that Moscow — while not a winner — will not, as most people believe, go out in the first round.
Several IOC members have confirmed that Russian diplomats have contacted them to set up personal meetings so they can deliver a private message from Russian president Vladimir Putin.
On such small details can first round votes be gained.
It is being widely publicised that only six votes could separate the winner from the second placed city.
”I have the feeling it will not exceed six votes,” said IOC president Jacques Rogge recently.
But some members are starting to doubt it will be that close.
Some are even hinting at a ”blow-out”.
Such is the unknown, that bid chiefs will find themselves wound as tight as a violin string as the hours close in on the vote.
IOC members often tell bid cities what they want to hear.
But when the decision is taken it is by secret vote.
”If everybody who said they would vote for us did we would have won by a mile,” said Bob Scott after Manchester failed in 1989 to halt an Atlanta success for the 1996 Games.
Whoever wins, the guaranteed winner will be Rogge and the IOC.
Never has there been such a high-profile bidding battle.
Five of the best-know cities in the world — and nobody doubts any one of them is capable of mounting a successful Games.-Sapa-AFP