If rugby Test matches were as easy to predict as Tour de France winners, the Wallabies could save a lot of money in hotel costs by packing their bags and flying home before Saturday’s Test against South Africa in Pretoria. In fact, one of their squad — reserve scrumhalf Matt Henjak — has already done so, sent home in disgrace after a late-night incident in a Cape Town nightclub on the Thursday before the game.
The other players involved in the incident — Lote Tuqiri, Wendell Sailor and Matt Dunning — all escaped with fines and suspended sentences. A cynic might suggest that Henjak, being a lot less crucial to the functioning of the Test side, was hung out to dry by the Australian management team.
A siege mentality seems to have developed among the squad with claims from coach Eddie Jones of a carefully directed ”Hate the Wallabies” campaign emanating from the South African Rugby Union. If only Jones had spent some time researching the body in question, he would surely conclude that nothing ”carefully directed” ever comes from it.
In fact, it merely seems that the Wallabies have as much of a psychological block over playing the Springboks in South Africa as the Springboks have when they play in Australia. Since the Tri-Nations began, the Wallabies have a single victory to their name in this country and that a mere 19-18 win in Durban five years ago.
In the 13 years since readmission, their only other win was in Cape Town in 1992, when as reigning world champions Bob Dwyer’s team showed how far behind the Springboks had fallen in their years away from international competition.
The Wallabies have never won in Pretoria and in 1997 Loftus Versfeld was the scene of their greatest humiliation. It was Carel du Plessis’s last game as Springbok coach and, as it turned out, Andre Joubert’s last Test. The great fullback was the catalyst in a total rugby festival that blew the Wallabies away 61-22.
That game was also the first of a 17-match unbeaten run that lasted two years under the wise counsel of Du Plessis’s successor, Nick Mallett. One of Mallett’s first management appointments was a young coach from Johannesburg by the name of Jake White. With White now head coach the question being asked is whether the Springboks are on the verge of another great era.
It seems odd even to be debating that point after the desperate performance served up by the Boks in Sydney at the beginning of the month. History alone will record whether White was pushed or chose to jump into a complete revision of his team and tactics for Ellis Park, but the fact is that in one fell swoop he settled almost all the issues aired on a regular basis by his detractors.
He got pace into his back row, unpredictability into his flyhalf and swapped a dysfunctional centre partnership for one that heralds a glorious new era. He proved, too, that there is life after Os du Randt and that Bakkies Botha is capable of something more than pointless bully-boy tactics.
So, to revert to the opening statement, why should the Wallabies bother to turn up? From a purely parochial viewpoint, it would be nice to see them humiliated, but that is highly unlikely. The bookmakers might stop short of expecting an away win, but they will not discount the Wallabies for two reasons.
Firstly, last Saturday may have been an aberration on both sides. Secondly, Jones is the most sapient of international coaches and he will have worked a few things out for the Boks to chew on. Among other improvements, expect Australia to be far more competitive in the lineouts than they were at Ellis Park and expect a whole bunch of lazy runners blocking up the midfield.
What slew the Wallabies in Johannesburg was quick ball at the breakdowns. The first move of the match saw the Boks take the ball through seven phases, something they never managed in the four previous Tests of the year.
A quick back row cleaned out so effectively that inside centre Jean de Villiers could concentrate on bamboozling his opponents. His predecessor, De Wet Barry, was rarely able to deal in subtleties because he was needed constantly at the rucks.
De Villiers also revelled in the extra space provided by Andre Pretorius at flyhalf. With Jaco van der Westhuyzen in the number 10 shirt, opponents knew that a kick was only a last resort or, as in Sydney, the result of muddled tactical thinking from the coaching staff.
Pretorius’s ability to vary his game drew the focus away from the inside centre. That shouldn’t happen this week and it will be a delicious test of De Villiers’s boundless ability to see how he copes.
Ultimately, however, the important thing about Saturday’s game is that the Boks should be competitive. It’s highly unlikely, but should they happen to lose they need to do so with honour in order to underline the new direction taken by Springbok rugby.
It is, after all, just six weeks since the Boks played the last half hour against France in Durban with one black player, Bryan Habana, standing forlornly on the wing like a spot on a domino. Last week there were nine players of colour in the 22, this week just six.
We are told this is because the coach wanted plenty of Bulls in the squad on their home field. If this is a horses-for-courses selection, no one will mind. If it is the other kind of bull, it will surely come back to haunt a team on the threshold of greatness.