United States generals hope to withdraw up to 30 000 troops from Iraq by next spring, signalling increasingly firm plans for a phased US pull-out.
In a classified briefing to senior Pentagon officials last month General John Abizaid, the top US commander in the Middle East, reportedly said the equivalent of more than 20 brigades would leave if conditions were right.
The assessment tallied with last week’s statement by General George Casey, the top commander in Iraq, that there could be ”some fairly substantial reductions” in troops by next spring and summer.
Both men cautioned that shrinking the 138 000-strong US force would happen only if the political process was on track and Iraqi forces became better at handling security.
The insurgency showed no sign of abating over the weekend. Dozens of gunmen backed by two suicide car bombers attacked Iraqi troops in Baghdad. With the help of US helicopters they were repulsed and lost six dead, 12 captured, according to the US military.
Gun attacks elsewhere killed two oil workers and at least five Iraqi soldiers and police, while a roadside bomb killed two American soldiers.
The New York Times quoted General Abizaid as saying the number of US troops would rise to 160 000 for elections scheduled in December but quickly return to its current size.
If conditions allowed, the force would diminish by 20 000-30 000 by spring and, possibly, tens of thousands more later in 2006.
Units preparing to head to Iraq could be told to stay put while some brigades already there could find their year-long tour curtailed. There is talk of a reserve force in Kuwait lest the security situation deteriorates, said one official.
US President George Bush and the Secretary of Defence, Donald Rumsfeld, have repeatedly said the US will not leave until the job is done, but they face growing domestic criticism over the cost: $1-billion a week, and at least 1 823 Americans dead and 13 769 wounded.
Some supporters of the March 2003 invasion have begun echoing the advice given to President Lyndon Johnson during the Vietnam quagmire: declare victory and leave.
In addition to improving and expanding Iraq’s security force, currently at 176 000, a US withdrawal hinges on creating a viable and stable state. That effort reached a crucial juncture on Sunday night when Shia, Sunni and Kurdish leaders attempted to hammer out a draft Constitution just one week before a self-imposed deadline.
If approved by Parliament the text will be subject to a referendum scheduled for October, paving the way for elections in December. – Guardian Unlimited Â