A bellwether report has found that the number of malnourished people in Africa has increased from 88-million in 1970 to 200-million today, 35% of the continent’s population, as a result of ill-conceived agricultural policies and trade barriers imposed by wealthy countries.
This makes the Millennium Development Goals — to halve the proportion of people who suffer from hunger in Africa by 2015 — inconceivable unless there is a turnaround in both domestic and international policy choices and investments.
The new research by the Inter-national Food Policy Research Unit (IFPRU) notes: ”Policy choices and investments made now could substantially improve, or further worsen, the prospects for food security in Africa over the next two decades.”
Currently, Central Africa suffers from the highest levels of malnutrition, with 58% of the population starving. In East and Southern Africa, 40% of the population is malnourished.
This record is in stark contrast to that of other developing nations such as South-East Asia, which has made considerable strides in combating malnutrition.
The report defines a food-secure household as ”one that can reliably obtain food of adequate quality and quantity to support a healthy and active life for all members of the household”. This includes both food availability and high enough income levels to sustain consistent access to food.
Most of the challenges facing Africa’s agricultural sector stem from a few root causes, particularly poor political and economic governance, says the report.
The report explores the consequences of various policies (see box below) related to food security in Africa based on projections for 2025.
”The results of these policy scenarios shows that the number of malnourished children, one important indicator of food security, could rise as high as 41,9-million or fall as low as 9,4-million by 2025.”
Although the report makes no projections about which scenario is most likely in 2025, it points to various policy priorities for addressing food security in Africa. These include reform of agricultural policies, trade and tariffs; increased investment in rural infrastructure, education and social capital; better management of crops, land and water and inputs; increased agricultural research; and greater investment in women.
A recent study conducted by the Institute for Economic Affairs in Britain estimates that European Union agricultural policies have reduced African exports of milk products by more than 90%, livestock by nearly 70%, meat by almost 60% and non-grain crops by 50%. Without EU domestic subsidies and protective tariffs, the gross domestic product in sub-Saharan Africa could grow to nearly $26-billion a year — enough to increase the annual income of every person in these countries by nearly 13%, the IFPRU research found.
On the domestic front, in sub-Saharan Africa soil quality is classified as degraded on about 72% of arable land and 31% of pasture land. Unless pest management, participatory conservation and use of plant genetic resources, as well as recognition of traditional land tenure systems and investment in irrigation systems, is implemented, the likelihood of increasing crop yield to a sustainable level by 2025 is remote, notes the report.
The ability of women to rescue Africa’s floundering agricultural sector is emphasised. Women provide 70% to 80% of household food production in sub-Saharan Africa.
While farm plots run by women have been found to have 20% to 40% lower yields than those run by men, when women receive the same levels of education, experience and farm inputs, they can increase the yields of some crops by 22%, the report says.
Three scenarios for the future
Business-as-usual scenario
This scenario assumes a continuation of current trends in managing food security on the continent, including declining investments in the agricultural sector. The absolute number of malnourished children under five increases by about 35% from 33-million in 1997 to 38-million in 2025. Achieving the projected outcomes in this scenario would require total investment expenditure in Africa of $171-billion between 1997 and 2025.
Pessimistic scenario
It envisions a future in which trends in agricultural production and nutrition deteriorate. In this scenario malnutrition in Africa proliferates, and the total number of malnourished children under five escalates from 33-million to 55-million in 2025 — 17-million more children than projected under the previous scenario.
Vision scenario
This scenario shows what type of transformation in necessary for Africa to meet the Millennium Development Goals target of halving those suffering from hunger by 2015. The total number of malnourished children is reduced from 33-million in 1997 to nine million in 2025, thus coming close to meeting the target but 10 years later. But for this to be realised, it requires a 78% increase in projected investments for Africa over the ”business as usual” projections. The total percentage increase in investment, at 94%, is even higher for sub-Saharan Africa.