Crime statistics have proven to be as malleable as the hands of the spin doctor who holds them.
Minister of Safety and Security Charles Nqakula this week said the statistics, showing an average decrease of 5%, indicated that the battle against crime was being won and that ”the future was rosy”, while political parties have either shot down the figures as nothing to crow about, or read them to be indicating gloom, especially the crimes against women and children.
An Institute for Security Studies (ISS) researcher, Duxita Mistry, said crime statistics, like any other, were open to interpretation. ”You can put whatever spin you like on them and still be persuasive.”
Mistry said an ISS national victim survey conducted in 2003 confirmed that crime was on the decrease. She added that political parties, especially those in opposition, were bound to use the statistics to criticise the ruling party.
”There will always be robust debate on the meaning of crime statistics because we are a developing country that is still in transition and because crime is still very high.”
One of the areas that lends itself to political spin is the statistics pertaining to sexual offences.
According to the official report, rape increased by 4% and indecent assault by 8%.
The Northern Province’s 1 559 reported rapes was the lowest figure in the country, but the per 100 000 in the population ratio, reveals that one is more likely to be raped in that province than anywhere else in South Africa.
While the Freedom Front said the overall statistics showed that women were unsafe, the police said the increase in levels of rape and other sexual offences showed communities’ confidence in the police and were a reflection of people now reporting crimes.
Another set of numbers that told two stories was the statistic that the Northern Cape, with 388 reported murders, was the safest place to live in a country where 18 793 people were killed in a 12-month period. But, again, measured against a ratio per 100 000 of the population, the Northern Cape came in third after Limpopo and the North West.
Nqakula acknowledged that there was a perception locally and internationally that the war against crime was far from won, and blamed South Africans for this.
”The perception of South Africa [being a violent country] comes from South Africans themselves. We are trying to change that,” he said.
Nqakula added: ”The future looks rosy. We have a police service that is changing in its ethos and mindset. The antagonism is dissipating. More people are coming forward with information and … to work together to reduce levels of crime.”
Mistry thought that the police, with the help of other elements of the criminal justice system, could do more to boost the perception that they were winning. ”It is important for the police to manage these perceptions. People need to have their fears allayed.
”They want to be constantly reassured that the police are winning the battle. That is why it is so important for the police to always talk about its success. The specialised sexual offences court is an example [of success]. The Minister of Justice said recently that they had a 64% conviction rate. That is important for both victims and perpetrators that there is a good chance that perpetrators will be convicted.”
Stock theft takes a dip
More than 32 600 cases of stock theft were reported in the last policing year, a decline of nearly 9 000 on the previous year. Police statisticians say there were 21% fewer reports of stock being stolen than between April 2003 and March 2004.
However, head of the police crime information analysis centre, Commissioner Chris de Kock, conceded that this could be attributed to several factors, including farmers leaving stock farming.
The figures have been revealed at a time when some farmers’ organisations have threatened guerrilla warfare against what they perceive as subtle state efforts to drive them out of farming.
Organised agriculture applauded the decline in stock theft, but turned the spotlight on robberies, which they said were the main threat to farming communities. AgriSA spokesperson Kobus Visser said police figures showed robberies comprised 90% of violent crimes against farmers. Visser said stock farmers residing near towns and informal settlements had opted to quit farming, particularly sheep farming, as these animals were easy prey for thieves.
Gerhard Schutte, spokesperson for the Red Meat Producers Organisation, said he was ”chuffed” with the numbers, adding that they stemmed from the hard work the organisation had put into reducing stock theft. — Fikile-Ntsikelelo Moya