Elections set for March in the volatile Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) could spark ”mass violence” if current conditions in the vast Central African state persist, an influential policy group warned on Wednesday.
A lack of laws guaranteeing free and fair polls and good governance, as well as a failure to integrate the army and disarm a plethora of rebel groups, make a risky cocktail for successful polls, the DRC’s first in 40 years, it said.
Failure to address the issues could plunge the nation into another cycle of bloody violence, the Brussels-based Crisis Group (CG) said, urging the international community to pressure Kinshasa to end the status quo.
”There are reasonable grounds for fearing electoral manipulation and even relapse into mass violence that would put at severe risk both the unity of the Congo and the stability of much of the continent,” it said.
”The greatest risk … is that the status quo is maintained, the Congo will have elections, not much will change and five years later fighting will break out because the root causes of the war were not addressed,” CG analyst Jason Stearns said.
Drawbacks
At least 60% of the targeted 28-million voters have so far been registered for next year’s presidential, legislative and local elections in the DRC that are hoped to return stability to the country after a devastating five-year war.
But corruption and mismanagement among government officials, lack of a competent justice system, violence — mainly in the volatile eastern region — and a failure by the United Nations mission in the DRC (Monuc) to enforce an arms embargo are major drawbacks to the process, the CG said.
”Extensive embezzlement has resulted in inadequate and irregular payment of civil servants and soldiers, making the state itself perhaps the largest security threat to the Congolese people,” said the report.
In the document released in Nairobi, Kenya, entitled A Congo Action Plan, the group noted that despite small successes, voter registration has been hampered by lack of funds and logistical problems, prompting an indefinite extension of the process that could force postponement of a November 20 constitutional referendum.
”Such a delay could cause a crisis for a government whose people already see it as inefficient and corrupt,” said the CG.
Possible rejection
The draft Constitution faces possible rejection with some critics opposing provisions that call for a decentralised, federal state because of abuses by previous governments in Kinshasa, notably the regime of late Zairean dictator Mobutu Sese Seko.
It also envisions splitting the country’s 10 provinces into 26, a move that has also drawn opposition.
”If the Constitution is rejected, the Parliament will have to search for a new consensus and the entire transition will be held up,” warned the CG, known until a recent name change as the International Crisis Group.
Meanwhile, continuing unrest in the eastern DRC and the status of ethnic Tutsis and Hutus from neighbouring Rwanda remain unresolved and exacerbated by wrangling within President Joseph Kabila’s Cabinet, the report said.
”Competition for power within Kabila’s inner circle has accentuated these tensions with Kinshasa politicians using military allies in the provinces to advance their claims,” according to the CG.
The international think tank called for the passage of new laws to allow effective poll monitoring and ensure a free and fair vote, the full integration of the national army and a strengthening of Monuc to facilitate its mandate.
It also urged the disarmament of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda comprising Rwandan Hutu rebels active in the east, whose presence for more than a decade has been a cause of tension between Kigali and Kinshasa. — Sapa-AFP