The real growth rate of the South African economy is expected to moderate next year, but remain at or above 4% for four years in a row, Econometrix economist Azar Jammine told a media briefing on economic prospects hosted by Noah Financial Innovation on Friday.
“The forecast is due to the stable macro-economic policies that the government has put in place over many years. That means we will not shoot out the lights, but equally we will not have the volatility of an economy like Argentina or Turkey,” Jammine said.
He is forecasting real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4,4% this year from 3,7% last year.
“The slowdown to 4,1% next year is largely due to an easing in gross domestic fixed investment growth from 9,4% last year to 7,5% this year and only 5,6% next year and 2007, before a pickup in 2008 to 6,3% as World Cup related projects come on stream,” he said.
Real GDP growth is forecast at 4% in 2007 before recovering to 4,2% in 2008.
The Statistics South Africa seasonally adjusted production data show that real GDP only grew by 4,5% y/y in the second quarter from 4,4% y/y in the first quarter.
The differences between the production and the expenditure sides are normally resolved in the November 29 benchmarking exercise. – I-Net Bridge