South Africans are bracing for political storm clouds in 2006 as the ruling African Nations Congress confronts its biggest crisis in more than a decade of power, but an economic boom could spread some sunshine.
The political turmoil surrounding the fate of former deputy president Jacob Zuma, once a frontrunner to succeed President Thabo Mbeki, has laid bare deep divisions within the ANC, the movement that brought down apartheid and swept to power in 1994 under Nelson Mandela.
Mbeki fired Zuma as deputy president in June after his financial adviser was convicted of corruption and the popular politician’s fortunes hit rock-bottom when he was charged with raping a 30-year-old family friend earlier this month.
He is due to go on trial for rape in February and for corruption five months later — a series of public humiliations that are likely to pour cold water on his ambitions to succeed Mbeki when his term ends in 2009.
Analysts agree however that regardless of the outcome of the trials, more wrangling is in store for the ANC as other presidential contenders muscle in, some of whom will tap into Zuma’s leftist support base.
”The wind has been seriously taken out of the sails of the personality cult of Jacob Zuma,” said political researcher Jonathan Faull.
”But the broader debates that informed the rebellious instincts within the ANC, while they have been set back, will resurface around the succession issue,” he said.
The race to succeed Mbeki is expected to go into high gear ahead of an ANC congress in late 2007 when a leader will be chosen to take the party into elections two years later.
Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, the first South African woman to hold such high office, and other ANC heavyweights such as secretary general Kgalema Motlanthe are cited as possible contenders.
While the ANC grapples with crisis — its worst in 11 years of power according to Motlanthe — the party is not showing signs that the turmoil has crippled its ability to govern and to steer the economy.
Confounding even his own predictions, Finance Minister Trevor Manuel has announced that economic growth should top five percent in 2005, its highest level since 1984.
Such a boom would put the government on track for meeting its target of six percent annual growth, a level that could make a dent in poverty and in unemployment, which officially stands at 26% although economists also cite the figure of 40% joblessness using a wider definition.
Over the Christmas period, South African retailers registered record sales while the new black middle class is fueling a property boom and buying up new cars.
That Africa’s biggest economy appears unfazed by the political feuding at the top shows that ”the debate has been a healthy one,” said Faull.
”There has been discussion on important points — about how the ANC operates in power and where it is going,” he said.
The ANC will face a key test with the March 1 municipal elections, where millions of South Africans unemployed and demanding housing as well as basic services will have a voice.
”Economically, it will be a better year,” said Raymond Louw, who writes a weekly newsletter on Southern African affairs. ”But at the bottom end, I don’t see a great deal of upliftment.”
”The much more pressing issues are service delivery and the incompetence of local authorities,” said Louw.
Police have repeatedly turned out in force, firing rubber bullets and tear gas at township protesters demanding basic services that they say were promised by the ANC when it came to power. – Sapa-AFP