The United States and Europe formally declared an end on Thursday to two-and-a-half years of negotiations over Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons programme and pledged to take the Iranians before the United Nations security council.
Condoleezza Rice, the US Secretary of State, said the Iranians had crossed a threshold by their ”dangerous defiance of the entire international community”.
The way is set for a protracted confrontation between the West and Iran, one with echoes of the run-up to the Iraq war, though European diplomats sought to play down parallels.
Rice was speaking in Washington after British, French and German foreign ministers met in Berlin to demand an emergency meeting of the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is expected to refer the dispute to the UN security council next month. Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the German foreign minister, flanked by the British Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, and the French Foreign Minister, Philippe Douste-Blazy, said: ”Our talks with Iran have reached a dead end.”
Rice agreed with the European troika’s conclusion. ”What the Iranians did was to unilaterally destroy the basis on which the negotiations were taking place, which was that there was going to be a moratorium on these activities, it would be given time to work through these issues to try to find a solution,” she told a news conference. ”They unilaterally basically blew up the negotiations.”
The UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan, said that Iran’s nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, had told him Tehran was interested in ”serious and constructive negotiations” with Britain, France and Germany, a tactic Iran has used before in response to a confrontation.
”He affirmed to me that they are interested in serious and constructive negotiations but within a time frame, indicating that the last time they did it for two-and-a-half years and no result,” Annan said.
The Europeans had been scheduled to meet an Iranian delegation next Wednesday but that will now be scrapped. A joint statement read: ”The Iranian government now seems intent on turning its back on better relations with the international community.”
It added: ”This is not a dispute between Iran and Europe, but between Iran and the whole international community … it is about Iran’s failure to build the necessary confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear programme.”
The tough approach towards Tehran reflects exasperation by the Europeans with Iran’s President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The escalation of the crisis was triggered by Tehran’s breaking of UN seals on uranium enrichment equipment on Tuesday.
The British government is to host a meeting in London on Monday with senior officials of the US, Russia and China to try to secure consensus at the IAEA meeting and avoid deadlock at the security council.
The west Europeans, the US and Israel accuse Iran of being engaged in a covert programme to secure a nuclear weapon. Tehran claims it is only developing its nuclear facilities for civilian purposes.
Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former president, repeated on state radio on Thursday that Tehran would press ahead with its nuclear programme in spite of what he described as ”colonial taboos”.
The Berlin talks, which lasted less than an hour, contrasted with the euphoria when Straw and his French and German counterparts flew to Tehran in 2003 to secure what they thought was a historic agreement. The Berlin meeting marked the breakdown of a rare and ambitious attempt by the EU at international crisis management. Straw, anxious to avoid comparisons with Iraq, said referral to the UN did not necessarily mean sanctions.
The security council
The US, Britain and France, three of the security council’s five permanent members, will have little problem in securing a majority for action, as few of the council’s members would oppose them. Newly elected members this year are Peru, Qatar, Slovakia, Ghana and Congo, joining Greece, Denmark, Japan, Argentina and Tanzania.
A blocking move by Russia or China, the two other permanent members with a veto, and both relatively close to Tehran, is about the only way Iran could escape the council’s censure.
An indication of how the voting may go was provided at a board meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency in September on a resolution about referring Iran to the council. Twenty-three of the board members voted in favour, with only one voting against: Venezuela. There were 12 abstensions including Russia and China.
The options
Diplomacy
The meeting of the EU three — Britain, France and Germany — marks the end of two years of talks between the EU and Iran and a move to the UN security council.
Sanctions
Referral to New York does not mean the end of diplomacy but the focus will be on isolating Iran, then possibly moving to punitive action. This could take the form of a travel ban on the Iranian leadership or limited trade bans. Iran could respond by pulling out of voluntary inspections of its nuclear programme.
Military strike
Getting UN security council agreement for a military strike is almost impossible. The US or Israel could act unilaterally. A land attack on Iran is not feasible but the US and Israel argue it is possible to have air strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Jack Straw has ruled out British involvement in a military strike. – Guardian Unlimited Â