In 1995 ‘media convergence’ was the buzzword most people misunderstood. This seems to be the case ten years later now that convergence is a harsh reality. On the brink of digital terrestrial TV, there are six opportunities on the horizon that may in some way be interconnected.
- E.tv’s moves into Africa.
- The impending new licence for a pay-TV operator.
- Digital terrestrial (DTT) roll-out which will have significant penetration by 2015.
- The two African language channels SABC 4 and 5.
- SABC CEO Dali Mpofu’s surprise announcement (The Media December 2005) of two Africa-wide satellite channels.
- The soccer World Cup 2010, which will strain current broadcasting capacity.
TT roll-out
There is a simple conflict here: Audiences are now used to, and expect, unlimited choice, but at the same time they don’t like to be told what to do. In the case of DTT, even if they will be able to get up to 40 channels over the air, they are not going to like being told to buy a decoder to receive the digital signals, especially if the cost is set somewhere around R500. Despite estimates that this is affordable to 2.5 million households, what about the other five million who actually vote?
There are possibilities of running a multi-tier TV licence system and offering a free decoder to those in the upper tiers, but there has been no word that this in one of the plans. The other option is to distribute low cost decoders available from the Far East.
SABC 4 & 5
This poses heaven-sent opportunities for content producers who will need to feed a monster gobbling at least 18 hours of new content a day. It will probably also revive South Africa’s language dubbing industry, which has faded into memory.
Africa
It seems unlikely that the SABC will be able to launch SABC 4 and 5, and two satellite channels without involving capacity from the private sector. But Africa is a sensitive area, and needs people who have, and can build, relationships at the coal-face.
The media has loads of people who know Africa like the back of their hands and it’s possible that long forgotten names will resurface.
Pay-TV
Competitors to Multichoice announce themselves and lope off to the broadcaster’s graveyard at the rate of one a year. But this time, it will involve an ICASA licence which means that the bidders will have to present workable plans. We all know it’s possible, if only because of the public’s seemingly insatiable appetite for junk TV. The advertising business case is less clear.
2010
Finally there’s the Soccer World Cup in 2010. This is not going to be the cash cow that everyone expects. Pundits need to analyse forecasts of advertising and sponsorship income and scrutinize the FIFA contracts. The temporary one-off B&Bs are likely to make more money.
This event will probably need 1,000 new trained personnel to man the broadcasting battle stations. Where will they come from? And for that matter, where do all the trained personnel for the other five ventures come from? Unless broadcasters starts specialist training soon, we will most likely face massive skills imports from the Far East.
One thing is certain though, the television landscape is altering at a rapid pace, both internationally and in southern Africa. Being the ubiquitous medium it is, the consequences will have a profound social and economic impact.