Barely two weeks after meeting and assuring President Thabo Mbeki of their strength and unqualified support, the pro-Senate faction of Zimbabwe’s opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) is on its political death bed, analysts predict.
The Mail & Guardian has been informed that 10 or more legislators in the Midlands, Harare and parts of Matabeleland have already made known their intention to jump ship from the pro-Senate faction led by Arthur Mutambara.
Three high-profile members of its national executive have resigned from their posts just six months after going on a crusade against their rival, Morgan Tsvangirai, of the anti-Senate faction of the MDC.
The split followed the outcome of the October 2005 national council elections in which Tsvangirai unilaterally decided against participation in the senate elections, opposing secretary general Professor Welshman Ncube, who favoured participation.
The split saw the two camps, one now led by Mutambara, going on rallies to woo the affections of the masses of Zimbabwe. Robert Mugabe and his ministers, who initially labelled Mutambara a CIA agent when he appeared to be a new threat, have now turned their attention to their old foe, Tsvangirai. At the 26th independence celebrations recently, Mugabe warned Tsvangirai that he would be ”playing with fire” if he led demonstrations against his government.
When Tsvangirai’s rallies continued to woo tens of thousands of supporters and Mutambara drew only a trickle, questions were raised about the long-term survival of Mutambara’s faction.
It wasn’t long before the party’s choice for Parliament chief whip, Blessing Chebundo, businessperson Sam Siphepha Nkomo and national chairperson and a former Tsvangirayi ally in the union movement, Gift Chimanikire, resigned. Their resignations are a blow to Mutambara.
”The others will hold on. Maybe they will continue to exist on paper or in newspapers,” says Dr Lovemore Madhuku, constitutional reform pressure group chairperson. But there are no indications yet that Mutambara is giving in.
”All those in leadership positions who have developed cold feet or doubts about the efficacy of our values and non-violence, democracy and equality and respect for every Zimbabwean …We call upon them to take this opportunity to resign,” Mutambara said, in a brief statement.
His deputy secretary general, Priscilla Misihairambwi‒Mushonga, told the M&G the party ”is happy with the defections” and ”ours is not about just a quest for power, but principles, values and the ideology that should guide us.
”It’s a marathon. What is happening is not the final. This is the beginning of a long run. If we are able to weather the storm, then the leadership we shall retain would be principled and one to be proud of.”
”We are witnessing the decomposition of Mutambara’s MDC,” says Professor Eldred Masunungure, of the University of Zimbabwe’s political science department.
”It will not be able to retain the little support it had, let alone attract new support,” he added.
”It is on the verge of collapse and maybe on its death bed.”
Masunungure expects that a number of Mutambara’s faction members may go back into business, academia or private lives, while others, with ”tails between their legs”, may have to back to Tsvangirai ”as prodigal sons, as an act of repentance”. Chimanikire is a ”prodigal son candidate” he said, while Welshman Ncube will go ”back into academia”, with Mutambara eventually ”finding common ground with Tsvangirai” and the party’s deputy president, Gibson Sibanda, ”retreating into his private life” should Tsvangirai refuse to resuscitate his (Sibanda’s) faltering political fortunes.
A researcher at the Wits Institute for Social and Economic Research, Robert Muponde, said: ”Mutambara is not the kind of leader who attracts the masses around him. When he talks he can be accused of setting his party’s agenda in terms of a foreign audience. He is quite arrogant in his speech as he talks to people, not with them.”
MDC spokesperson Nelson Chamisa said Tsvangirai will not pursue ”recriminations and retributions against his erstwhile colleagues”.
”Tsvangirai’s target is the Mugabe dictatorship,” Chamisa insisted. ”It is a broad-based movement willing to accommodate anyone in the fight for democracy.”