A belligerent President Robert Mugabe is placing conditions for the lifting of international sanctions first, before any dialogue or planned visit by United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan.
Mugabe is expected to meet Annan on the sidelines of the African Union summit in Gambia this week, following the facilitation of the meeting by South Africa President Thabo Mbeki.
UN spokesperson Yves Sokobi told journalists last week Annan had “expressed interest” in meeting Mugabe to avoid “Zimbabwe’s collapse”. The sanctions that Mugabe wants dealt with include European Union-targeted travel bans and the United States Economic Recovery Act, which bars the US from doing business with Zimbabwe.
It is a conditionality Mugabe mooted after Mbeki’s shuttle diplomacy between London and Harare to help kick-start the dialogue process. Mugabe has also imposed the removal of sanctions as a prerequisite to any serious engagement with the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC).
At a meeting held last year in the Gunhill suburb between Zanu-PF kingmaker General Solomon Mujuru and MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai, Mujuru advised the MDC leader that Mugabe wanted him to talk to the West to remove sanctions first before any meaningful dialogue between the parties can take place. Present during that meeting were Economic Development Minister Rugare Gumbo and Central Intelligence Organisation Director General Happyton Bonyongwe.
Mugabe’s desperation to have sanctions lifted resonates with US ambassador Christopher Dell’s observations that the sanctions were making an impact.
Insiders within Zanu-PF’s information department tell the Mail & Guardian that Mugabe was going to meet Annan in an “uncompromising mood”, given the “hurting sanctions”.
Annan’s visit to Harare may not be “any time soon” as Mugabe is worried about what Annan may bring to the table and “the continued spotlight Zimbabwe receives at every international forum”.
“Zimbabwe is not in a position to impose conditions. Only the international community has that capacity,” says Professor Eldred Masunungure, political science lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe. “Zimbabwe is severely wounded to the point that it cannot sustain the present crisis.”
Mugabe two weeks ago also advised a delegation of church leaders to engage Tsvangirai over sanctions. Reverend Andrew Muchechetere of the Ecumenical Peace Initiative says the issue of sanctions will be on the table in a meeting with Tsvangirai next week.
The “success of the Mugabe-Annan meeting will largely depend on the stance of the two men,” says Masunungure. “If Mugabe goes in a belligerent mood, he won’t achieve anything.” Mugabe, instead “will seek the indulgence of Annan to intercede on behalf of Zimbabwe”.
Mugabe hauled his late information minister Tichaona Jokonya over the coals after a Cabinet meeting two weeks ago, following an interview Jokonya gave to the Voice of America in which he says Mugabe will have dialogue with Annan over the escalating political crisis. Jokonya died last weekend.
Insiders say “Mugabe feels there is no need for dialogue; sanctions should go first.”
Presidential spokesperson George Charamba, who briefs Mugabe, indicated Annan’s invitation to Zimbab-we was “stale” as Operation Murambatsvina — which he was supposed to assess after his envoy’s damning reports — was over and had been replaced by Operation Garikai (stay well).
“Mugabe feels no need to meet Annan,” says the insider but “regional pressure seems to be prevailing, that’s why he is upping the stakes by demanding Annan convince the international community to remove -sanctions first.”
Constitutional law expert Lovemore Madhuku doesn’t think Annan will achieve much. “It’s too late,” he says. “His trip will be doomed given the diverse interests within UN, particularly the Security Council,” he says. Russia and China will oppose any motion that “puts Zimbabwe in the dock”.
Because Annan is quitting in December, Zanu-PF insiders feel his sell-by-date is too close for him to have any meaningful impact. Madhuku says instead of focusing on the Annan-Mugabe talks, international condemnation “should mount”. “Mugabe must be pressurised to bring genuine democratic reforms,” he says.