Serial blasts that killed 200 people in Mumbai will “test the resilience” of the peace process between nuclear-armed India and Pakistan but are unlikely to derail it, analysts said on Thursday.
New Delhi has not attributed the attack to Pakistan-based Islamic militants, but Indian police say Tuesday’s rush-hour bombings that also wounded nearly 800 people bore the hallmark of one such group.
“Definitely, there will be a fall-out” on the peace dialogue, said Bharat Karnad, security analyst with the Centre for Policy Research think tank.
India’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday that militants continue to use Pakistani soil as a springboard for attacks against India. It called on Islamabad to live up to its 2004 pledge “to dismantle the infrastructure of terrorism on the territory under its control”.
Pakistan, which described the blasts as “despicable”, has warned against blaming it in a “knee-jerk” fashion for the attack. It says it has taken action since 2004 to curb guerrilla violence against India.
Lashkar-e-Toiba, banned by both countries, has denied its involvement in the blasts but a top state police official said on Wednesday the attacks bore the group’s hallmark. Media reports have also said an outlawed group known as Simi or Students Islamic Movement of India could be involved.
The attacks “will definitely test the resilience of the peace process” launched by India and Pakistan in January 2004, said New Delhi-based security expert Uday Bhaskar.
Under the peace process, the two sides have launched rail and road links but made little headway on their nearly six-decade-old dispute over Kashmir which each hold in part but claim in full. The scenic Himalayan region has triggered two of their three wars.
India declined on Wednesday to confirm dates for planned talks between its Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran and his Pakistani counterpart Riaz Mohammad Khan in New Delhi.
The talks, part of the ongoing dialogue, had been slated to start next Thursday.
Earlier this week before the blasts the Pakistan foreign office confirmed its participation.
Experts said India was unlikely to call off the talks despite its unwillingness to announce dates.
“A graduated reaction rather than a precipitous action is likely to mark the Indian approach to Pakistan in the coming days,” Indian Express foreign affairs analyst C Raja Mohan said.
“I think the talks will go on … but I doubt very much that much will be achieved,” said Karnad.
India’s foreign secretary has been quoted by domestic media as saying the peace process may be “reviewed.
However, analysts saw little chance of tensions running as high as when militants raided parliament in New Delhi in 2001. That assault, which India blamed on Pakistan-based militants, brought the neighbours to the brink of a fourth war.
“I don’t think the peace talks will be derailed. A part of the challenge to the peace dialogue lies in the ability of the two sides to make it crisis-proof,” said Bhaskar.
“Everyone knows if you’re going to make headway in this particular problem [of militancy] you’re going to have to engage with Pakistan,” he added.
In a speech on Wednesday night, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said India would stand united against “enemies of our nation” and “will never let them win”.
But he did not mention Pakistan by name, an approach praised by Pakistani newspapers on Thursday.
“It is time the two governments realised that terrorism is a common enemy they face and their success in fighting it depends on their joining hands,” said Dawn, Pakistan’s oldest English-language daily. – AFP