The economic collapse of South Africa’s neighbouring state, Zimbabwe, is stripping South Africa of economic growth of about 2% per year, yet South African President Thabo Mbeki has “handed over the baton” to others to resolve the political impasse in that country, Zimbabwe opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) policy adviser and Zimbabwean businessman Eddie Cross said on Thursday.
Urging President Mbeki and the ruling African National Congress to use political and economic leverages to foster a movement to a transitional government and internationally supervised elections, he said that while South African and other African countries had watched, Zimbabwe’s economy had taken on the dubious honour of becoming the most-indebted country in the world.
It owes $5,5-billion in arrear payments. Argentina, at a critical phase, had debt of 45% of GDP but Zimbabwe owes two years of GDP.
From being South Africa’s largest trading partner on the African continent and a key consumer of beneficiated industrial goods, Zimbabwe is now dependent on aid — including large quantities of maize — from South Africa.
This has significant ramifications for South Africa, which should be achieving growth rates of 8% or more to create jobs and reduce unemployment. Yet South Africa appears to be “propping up” the Zimbabwe regime.
He said while South Africa stands back, 1,7-million Zimbabweans — many of them orphaned, hungry children who would literally kill for a cellphone — are estimated to be in South Africa.
A further 1 500 Zimbabweans are streaming in every day. South Africa is reacting by stripping people of their possessions and fruitlessly deporting them. They simply head straight back.
Speaking at a Cape Town Press Club breakfast, Cross — who said his party had been through every ballot of the 2002 parliamentary election and found that it had won more than 90 of the 120 parliamentary seats, which meant that the Mugabe government had been illegitimately in power since then — said Zimbabwe had arguably declined faster than any state not at war.
Noting that the civic organisations, trade unions and political organisations are on the brink of carrying out a mass-action campaign against the government of President Robert Mugabe, he said that his party has been holding talks with the military and he believed that if there is conflict on the streets — with armed security forces facing unarmed protestors — the bulk of the military will not kill their own people.
He is more worried, however, about the reaction of the “highly politicised” police force and Central Intelligence Organisation (CIO).
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), he said, has estimated the budget deficit to be 63% whereas sustainable levels were between about 3% and 5%. Private estimates of inflation are that it is running at 25% a month.
This has “a dramatic impact on everyone”, he said, warning that a month-long time frame for conversion of a recently introduced currency could fuel social unrest.
He noted that the issuing of this currency — without even ruling Zanu-PF Cabinet ministers being forewarned — meant that all autobank machines ceased to operate. People either obtain cash directly from the banks or trade directly on the streets.
The economic decline has affected women in particular, he said. The bulk of girls are now unable to go to school and they have a life expectancy of below 30. Yet no one is focusing on the predicament of uneducated women in a collapsing economy, he said.
The Mugabe regime — where the security mechanisms are now more powerful than the Cabinet — has routinely sought to destroy known opposition hotspots.
The population has already fallen — through emigration and death — from about 16-million to 10-million people. The collapse of white commercial farms had little to do with the white farmers and much more to do with removing 350 000 farm workers who voted against the ruling Zanu-PF.
He noted, too, that only four of the nine city administrations that were won by the MDC remained in that party’s hands. For example, Harare, the capital, has been placed under an imposed commissioner although Bulawayo — where there was no significant support for Zanu-PF — remained under MDC administration.
Cross, who was once detained by the white Rhodesian regime of Ian Smith, noted that there were just 20 000 white Zimbabweans left of a peak white population during Rhodesian rule of about 370 000.
He said there were just three whites left in the state administration. There were two white members of Parliament, both from the MDC. — I-Net Bridge