The United Nations Security Council is struggling to agree on a high-profile successor to Kofi Annan, the Secretary General, who will step down at the end of the year. With time running out and after months of lobbying and inconclusive consultations, the council is due to restart the selection process with a vote on Thursday.
Choosing a strong secretary general who enjoys broad support is crucial for the future of the UN, whose reputation has been battered by the Iraq war, the failure of peacekeeping operations and a United States-inspired campaign to undermine Annan.
There are five men in the running at present — although more candidates are expected to emerge — of whom Prince Zeid Ra’ad Zeid al-Hussein of Jordan has emerged as one of the favourites, according to diplomats based at the UN and in Western capitals. ”Everyone likes him. He is young, appealing, knows the [UN] system but is not part of it. That is crucial because the Americans said they do not want another insider,” a diplomat close to the race said on Monday.
Zeid has played up this advantage, telling Associated Press: ”We believe there is considerable scope to be given by the Security Council and the general assembly to a Muslim candidate who is familiar with the UN but not of the UN.”
He is reported to have the backing of John Bolton, US ambassador to the UN, and the United Kingdom government, which has indicated it is likely to support him.
Other frontrunners are Ban Ki-moon, the South Korean Foreign Minister, and Shashi Tharoor, a UN under-secretary of state, from India.
Although the US and Britain do not normally field candidates, there is potentially a wild card in the contest: the Fijian Foreign Minister, Kaliopate Tavola, has recommended a British Conservative Euro-MP, Nirj Deva. But diplomats at the UN say the Euro MP, who has joint British-Sri Lankan citizenship, has no chance of winning. A Western diplomat said: ”I cannot imagine this is going to prosper.”
The contest, which could last weeks, is being seen by many as more transparent than in the past. All declared candidates could be on parade at the Waldorf-Astoria hotel, near the UN, on September 26.
On Thursday, the 15-member Security Council will hold a straw poll of the five declared candidates. The permanent members will indicate either ”encouragement” or ”discouragement” of a candidate. Colour coded ballots will be used: red for the five permanent members, who carry more weight because of their veto, and white for the others.
If a candidate receives a lot of ”discouragements”, he is expected to drop out. When a candidate with sufficient support eventually emerges, his name will go forward to the 191-member general assembly, where election is normally a formality. Past winners have not necessarily been evident in the early rounds but have emerged later in the contest.
A tradition has developed of regional rotation, with the successful candidate this time supposedly Asian. Although Jordan is in the Middle East, it is part of the Asian bloc at the UN. Zeid, Jordan’s ambassador to the UN and a cousin of the monarch, King Abdullah, is liked by Britain because of the part he played as a political officer in the UN peacekeeping force. He is also president of the governing body of the international criminal court.
In an earlier straw poll, in which Zeid did not take part, the South Korean foreign minister came out on top, with Tharoor in second place. In third and fourth places were the Thai Deputy Prime Minister, Surakiart Sathirathai, with seven, and a Sri Lankan diplomat, Jayantha Dhanapala, with five.
Mark Malloch Brown, deputy secretary general, who will leave with Annan, told The Guardian earlier this year: ”What I would say is that the smart money remains overwhelmingly on an Asian.”
Candidates
Prince Zeid Ra’ad Zeid al-Hussein
Jordan’s ambassador to the UN and former political officer in UN’s Bosnia peacekeeping force. Thought to be backed by the US and Britain.
Ban Ki-moon
South Korea’s foreign minister, who announced in February that he would stand.
Shashi Tharoor
UN undersecretary for communications and public information, from India.
Surakiart Sathirathai
Thai Deputy Prime Minister. Backed by the 10-country Association of South-East Asian Nations; has been campaigning since last year.
Jayantha Dhanapala
Former Sri Lankan diplomat and UN official responsible for disarmament. – Guardian Unlimited Â