The clearest government timetable yet for Britain’s withdrawal from Iraq was set out on Wednesday when the British Foreign Secretary, Margaret Beckett, said she was confident Britain could hand control of the south of the country to Iraqi forces in spring.
It is the first time a British minister has given such an optimistic analysis and was cleared with Number 10 before being laid out in the Commons. She denied that her forecast amounted to the government cutting and running, or to a prediction of a total withdrawal. But her remarks are a benchmark against which progress can now be tested.
They also open up the possibility that many troops will be returning home by the time British Prime Minister Tony Blair resigns.
Such a development might free up some troops for Afghanistan, where proposals are being drawn up by the military for reinforcements to combat a potential Taliban offensive in the spring.
Beckett and Number 10 stressed that the timetable was dependent on the continued good progress of a joint British-Iraq operation in Basra, the largest and most populous of the four provinces originally put under British control. Britain has already relinquished control of two provinces and stood back from frontline security in a third.
Ministry of Defence sources said most of Britain’s 7 200 troops in the region would initially be withdrawn from the streets and then pulled back to the Basra airbase. An increasingly residual force would be prepared to re-enter the Shia-controlled city to restore order.
Troops might then be shifted to bases in friendly neighbouring countries.
Beckett’s announcement comes against a backdrop of pressure from senior military figures, including General Richard Dannatt, chief of the general staff, who has said that the UK’s continued presence has exacerbated security problems.
Menzies Campbell, the Liberal Democrat leader, said on Wednesday he was convinced the British military were now advising the government they had done all they could there.
The foreign secretary told MPs: “Although there can be no question of us abandoning Iraq in the present circumstances, that does not mean that things are standing still. Our approach has evolved significantly in recent months in response to a dynamic situation.”
She said Iraq’s Prime Minister, Nouri-al Maliki, was determined to take increasing control of security.
British and Iraqi troops are halfway through Operation Sinbad, the attempt to divide the city into 18 areas and overhaul each one in turn by giving widespread access to drinking water, clearing streets and improving job opportunities.
Major General Richard Shirreff, the British commander in southern Iraq, has said a “reasonable reduction” in the 7 000-strong force in southern Iraq was possible at the end of the operation in February.
Defence officials said on Wednesday night that the work was “going well” and that clashes between rival Shia militia in Amara, capital of Maysan province, north of Basra, were stopped by Iraqi forces. The British troops on standby were not needed.
Overall, violence has been falling in the city, but the position is unstable and dependent on the wider political situation in Iraq and the speed with which the local police force can be trained. It is still seen as corrupt and penetrated by militias.
Des Browne, the Defence Secretary, said it was neither appropriate nor helpful to speculate on British troop planning. A defence source said it might still be impossible for troops to leave altogether for at least a year.
It is also likely that any decisions will also need to be coordinated with the Americans. Different security considerations apply in the rest of Iraq, and decisions will await political discussions arising from the bipartisan Baker report due by the end of the year.
William Hague, the shadow foreign secretary, said a withdrawal would also depend on the state of the civilian police forces in the country.
The Conservatives are also putting increasing pressure on the government to spell out its plans for Afghanistan ahead of the Nato summit in Riga next week. – Guardian Unlimited Â