Israelis and Palestinians have seen truces collapse before. That is why no one wants to call the ceasefire in Gaza a turning point to reviving peace talks.
Nevertheless, if other hurdles can be crossed such as striking a deal to free an Israeli soldier held captive in Gaza and if Palestinian factions can forge a unity government, the weekend truce should be a springboard to substantive contact between the two sides.
The ceasefire should pave the way for a summit between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas when only six months ago the Jewish state appeared set on unilaterally imposing final borders.
At the very least, it will stem the bloodshed if it holds.
”We have been there so many times with temporary ceasefires that one is reluctant to sound the bell of a new era,” Shlomo Ben-Ami, who was Israel’s foreign minister when final status peace negotiations collapsed in 2000, told Reuters.
”But there is the potential. It’s an opportunity. Much depends on the leaders. Are they able to seize the momentum.”
The truce follows growing international alarm at a conflict that fuels Islamist radicalism and feeds into other regional conflicts such as Iraq and Lebanon.
While Israeli and Palestinian analysts played down suggestions of a coincidence in timing, the truce was announced days before United States President George Bush travels to the region.
Bush will visit Jordan this week for talks with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. He is also expected to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and progress could divert attention from Washington’s deepening woes in Iraq.
”If the calm endures, it will open the way for a political horizon,” said Saeb Erekat, a senior Abbas aide.
Obstacle
The first hurdle is getting the Gaza ceasefire to last.
For the truce to have any chance of holding it needs to be followed quickly by a deal to swap Corporal Gilad Shalit, captured by gunmen in a cross-border raid from Gaza last June, with Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.
The Palestinians then need to cap months of intermittent negotiations and form a unity government acceptable to Israel, the United States and Europe.
The West cut direct aid to the Palestinians when the Hamas Islamist faction took office because of its refusal to recognise Israel and renounce violence. Hamas beat Abbas’s more moderate Fatah in January elections.
”In order for any political momentum to develop, a lot more has to happen,” said Israeli analyst Yossi Alpher.
”But even here I am not talking about a peace process, I would talk about a confidence-building process, perhaps an interim process. That’s the best-case scenario.”
Israel refuses to deal with the Hamas government. Neither has Olmert held formal talks with Abbas since the Israeli leader assumed office nearly a year ago.
Indeed, Olmert’s plan was to unilaterally uproot remote Jewish settlements in the West Bank and to set final borders with the Palestinians in the absence of peace talks.
He shelved that policy after renewed hostilities with Gaza militants and this summer’s war with Lebanon’s Hezbollah guerrillas raised fears Palestinian gunmen would use any West Bank pullout to attack cities in the centre of Israel.
West Bank
Former Palestinian labour minister Ghassan Khatib said Israel could cement the truce by easing curbs on Gaza’s crossing points and allowing more freedom of movement in the West Bank.
Israel says the restrictions, which include checkpoints that criss-cross the West Bank, are needed to stop militant attacks.
”What happens in the West Bank affects Gaza. If the truce is only about Gaza, it will be in danger,” Khatib said.
Israel and the Palestinians wanted the Gaza ceasefire.
Palestinians were exhausted by an Israeli assault that began after the soldier was snatched in June. Israel realised militant rocket fire could not be stopped by military means.
Olmert also needed an agenda after ditching his unilateral West Bank plan while Abbas wanted to restore Western aid.
The question is can they make it hold.
Some Israelis are sceptical, suspecting militants will try to smuggle more weapons into Gaza from neighbouring Egypt.
Palestinians look at the growing right-wing flavour in Olmert’s coalition and wonder where concessions will come from.
As for broaching the subject a viable state for the Palestinians, the status of Jerusalem and whether Palestinian refugees have the ”right of return” to homes in what is now Israel — those thorny issues still appear far off. – Reuters