Businessman Tokyo Sexwale has been approached by senior Cabinet ministers to run for the position of African National Congress (ANC) president later this year, a move which would pave the way for him to become the president of South Africa when Thabo Mbeki retires in 2009, the Sunday Times reported.
Sexwale himself has been talking to both of the ANC factions, whose loyalties are split between Mbeki and Jacob Zuma, the Sunday Times said.
Part of Sexwale’s strategy appears to be to seek former President Nelson Mandela’s endorsement of his candidature, which his backers believe would constitute a great boost for his campaign.
Turbulent year
In December it was reported that 2007 promises to be the most turbulent in South Africa since apartheid’s demise, with an already acrimonious battle for the leadership of the ANC set to spill out into the open.
Mbeki, not due to stand down as state president until 2009, is set to relinquish his post as ANC supremo at a December conference with Jacob Zuma, the man whom he sacked as his number two, looking to place his foot on the traditional stepping stone to the highest office.
Mbeki will also face a new opposition leader when the Democratic Alliance chooses a successor to the outgoing Tony Leon.
”I would say it will be the most divisive year” since the end of the whites-only regime in 1994, said Cape Town-based analyst Daniel Silke.
”The battle for leadership in both spheres has the potential to create internal ructions.”
The last succession contest a decade ago, when Mbeki replaced Nelson Mandela, was not without bitterness but the divisions this time have raised questions about whether the ANC can stay in one piece.
In line with ANC tradition, Zuma has not declared his candidacy but there is furious lobbying behind the scenes.
Fundraising dinners have been held to build up a war-chest while Zuma supporters have been fingered for a string of humiliations heaped on Mbeki, such as heckling one of his speeches.
The contest will play out a decade-long battle between supporters of Mbeki’s privatisation agenda and those who feel he has ignored deep-seated poverty.
Adam Habib of the Pretoria-based Human Sciences Research Council said Zuma had positioned himself as cheerleader of the have-nots.
”He agreed to represent that faction, he articulated that unhappiness,” he said.
Zuma kept in the race after being cleared in 2006 of rape and having a corruption case thrown out of court.
But the threat of new graft charges and damaging revelations in the rape trial have left a shadow over his head.
A recent poll in the Sunday Independent showed 60% believe Zuma has disgraced the country while half believe he would be a disaster as president.
The survey also highlighted ethnic divisions, with Zuma’s main support base among Zulus and Mbeki’s support at its highest among Xhosa-speakers.
Nearly 80% of those from Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal want him as president compared with 31% of Xhosa speakers.
”For the first time within the succession stakes there is inter-ethnic conflict,” said Silke.
While Silke doubts the succession battle will scare off investors, ”anything that smacks of emergence of tribalism within South Africa would be of major concern to the international community”.
The potential for division has led to speculation the party will seek a compromise candidate. — Sapa, AFP