Former African National Congress chief whip Tony Yengeni will officially remain in political limbo until March at the earliest. But whatever the ANC decides about his formal role in the party, he will play a major role in complex and divided Western Cape in the run-up to the December leadership election.
That role will almost certainly involve lobbying support for Jacob Zuma in a province where the national succession is not the primary source of division in the party.
Yengeni was released from Malmesbury Prison on Monday after serving just less than five months of a four-year sentence for fraud. He attempted to conceal from Parliament evidence that he had received a 47% discount on a Mercedes-Benz from DaimlerChrysler, a would-be contractor in the arms deal.
The ANC said this week that it hoped that ‘following the completion of his period of correctional supervision, having satisfied both the conditions of the court and the sanctions of the ANC, Yengeni will be allowed to resume his life and will be able to continue his contribution to building a united, democratic, non-racial and non-sexist societyâ€.
That suggests a full return to politics only in January 2008, when Yengeni’s sentence ends, but party spokesperson Smuts Ngonyama said the national executive committee (NEC) will make a final decision at its March meeting.
‘He has served out his three-year suspension from the NEC, so technically he should be able to return, but because of the issues flowing from his parole — his correctional duties — it may be difficultâ€, Ngonyama explained.
Yengeni has to do 16 hours a week of community service, and there will be restrictions on his movement.
The issue may or may not be on the agenda at this weekend’s ANC lekgotla, Ngonyama added, but the earliest date for a final decision would be March.
‘It is an issue for the NEC and the disciplinary committee,†he said.
Officially, the Western Cape leadership of the party is hewing to the same line. ‘We have not received an instruction from the NEC, and we will take direction from them,†said provincial leader James Ngculu, ‘There is no role currently planned for him in terms of the province.â€
But other members of the provincial executive and associates of Yengeni said he was among the most influential leaders in the province and would almost immediately play a crucial role — both as a player in the Western Cape’s internal divisions, and as contenders in the national succession race seek to use or counteract his power to mobilise popular support.
Yengeni is widely seen as a supporter of ANC deputy president Jacob Zuma. Two people who have spoken to him since his release told the M&G his prison term had left him more convinced than ever, pointing to the fact that Zuma visited him ahead of his release.
Yengeni may now bring that conviction to bear in his home province, where local divisions cut across the succession divide.
Premier Ebrahim Rasool squarely backs Mbeki, but there are major differences among Rasool’s opponents on the provincial executive committee (PEC).
Ngculu is seen as an Mbeki supporter, and is said to argue that he offers crucial stability, while provincial secretary Mcebisi Skwatsha, who is close to Yengeni, backs Zuma.
So far solidarity in the provincial battle has overridden tensions over the succession, but that is likely to change as December approaches.
‘This may influence the decision of the national executive,†one top provincial official said. ‘As a member of the NEC Yengeni sits on the provincial executive, and he may push the PEC toward a position. He is a very effective orator.â€
He is also considered a potent weapon in grassroots mobilisation.
‘Many people think he should not have gone to prison, and that support base enables him mobilise. The Western Cape ANC will use him to do political work. He has really become a powerful figure, and even people in government want to use him to protect their positions,†said a PEC member. The member suggested that even those in the Rasool camp at odds with Skwatsha, or opposed to Zuma’s election campaign, would seek to minimise any damage Yengeni could do.
It is the desire to be seen as supporting Yengeni that drives the public display of support for him by a broad array of ANC leaders, despite outrage from the media and opposition parties.
‘We’ve only got eight or nine months to prepare for the [leadership election],†says a senior Western Cape figure ‘Branches have to revitalised; work has to be done.â€
Yengeni, it seems, will be able to name his terms.
What Yengeni has to say
‘It is a great day for me and my family and for the movement in that I’m now walking out of the gate of this prison, a place that I was not supposed to be in the first place.†— Tony Yengeni
‘A lot of wrong things have been said about me during my incarceration, including reports that the Minister of Correctional Services, Ngconde Balfour, hosted me and my family for lunch while I was in prison — this was complete fabrication.†— Yengeni, on reports that he had received preferential treatment
‘Some of them expect us to forgive them for having stood in the defence of apartheid, but yet they don’t want us to be forgiven. This is the hypocrisy we in the ANC must reject with the contempt it deserves.†— ANC Western Cape chairperson James Ngculu
‘He has been with us during trying times and we can’t be apologetic when we have to welcome him back to the ANC ranks.†— Ngculu