The back-slapping, the rictus smiles and the standing ovations of the State of the Union speech are integral to the annual ritual. But they could not disguise the hard truth that this was a very different report to Congress from any United States President George W Bush had delivered before.
Bush went to Capitol Hill on Tuesday attempting to revive a presidency suffering ongoing collapse. He did so in the face of a buoyant new Democratic majority in Congress, the worst confidence ratings of any White House occupant since Richard Nixon on the eve of his resignation, and a surge of interest in the 2008 election that only emphasises his isolation. Unsurprisingly, Bush’s speech was a failure.
Much analysis of the state of American politics is skewed by the barely disguised hope that Bush and his Iraq policies will get the comeuppance they deserve. So it is important to recognise that Bush is not a lame duck — yet. If he can use his powers smartly he has several months in which to achieve some of his political goals before the floods of the 2008 contest start closing over his head. But there was not much in Tuesday’s speech to suggest a president who believes he has a strategy for dealing with the US that he faces in the coming two years.
Bush observed the right courtesies towards the new majority party and its leaders. But he was not defensive, and he was certainly not apologetic.
On Iraq he talked of a fight that had to be won and a victory to which the US must turn. He talked tough on the federal budget too, promising a plan to balance it next week. But he refuses to face the reality about both these crises. Most Americans think he got them into these holes and are reluctant to trust his solutions. More to the point, most members of Congress, including a lot of Republicans whose seats now look suddenly vulnerable, do not believe in them either. If Bush is smart he will look elsewhere — immigration or the environment — for a bipartisan agenda.
But is he smart? And is he bothered? The circumstances of the 2007 State of the Union carried interesting echoes of the 1999 speech. In each case, a pummelled and humiliated president faced a Congressional majority that mostly hated him and a minority that was sceptical. Eight years ago, at the height of the impeachment effort, Bill Clinton fought hard and clever, making concessions where he had to, but still summoning the authority to win some Congressional battles and to mobilise the public on his side. Bush could try something similar. But he gives few signs of doing so. Perhaps he will surprise us all. Perhaps there is a Bush plan B. But Bush looks increasingly like a general who has run out of ideas, troops and hope. — Â