Zanu-PF’s 10 provincial branches have begun debating whether to extend the political term of their leader, President Robert Mugabe, by two more years after it expires in March next year.
The debate centres on whether to harmonise presidential and parliamentary elections by holding them together either next year or in 2010. This follows a crucial meeting of the party’s supreme organ, the Politburo, which referred the issue to the provinces for debate.
Recommendations from the party’s 10 provinces will be debated when the party’s administrative organ, the 255-member central committee, meets on March 28. Whatever view prevails, it will shape the political future of the country, which is reeling under its worst economic recession, with inflation now surging above 1 500%.
At the central committee, a hint will emerge whether Mugabe will stay put as head of both government and state.
Insiders say he is likely to remain life president of the party but that the crucial issue is who will lead the party in government should elections be held next year.
Two candidates are still running — Vice-President Joice Mujuru and Rural Housing Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa — though indications are that a dark horse may emerge, such as reformist former finance minister Simba Makoni.
The party is split down the middle along factional lines, with one of two heavyweights, Mujuru and Mnangagwa, tipped to grab the mantle should Mugabe call it quits.
A provincial executive member of Zanu-PF’s Midlands province told the Mail & Guardian that if Mujuru’s name is thrown into the ring ahead of that of Mnangagwa, the party will split, giving the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) a chance to win the presidential election. ”We don’t mind having elections in 2008. But there should be one condition — Mujuru’s name shouldn’t be thrown in,” he said.
Another provincial executive member from Manicaland acknow-ledged the divisions. ”Yes, the opposition is split, but divisions within our party are so serious — and deeper than people imagine. They are not discernible because we are mature about it,” he said.
Central Bank Governor Dr Gideon Gono told business leaders two weeks ago that Zanu-PF’s succession race was hurting the economy as selfish political interests were taking precedence over crucial national issues.
The Midlands provincial executive meets on Saturday to debate the harmonisation of the presidential and parliamentary elections. There are early indications that it is likely to endorse 2008 as the election year.
Manicaland, Bulawayo, Mashonaland Central and West provinces are believed to have started to debate the issue. Harare and Mashonaland East, both Mujuru strongholds, will endorse harmonisation for 2008, with clear indications that she must be the party’s candidate.
Political analysts say Zanu-PF should not make the controversial decision on its own. They have called for a referendum to decide the matter, or for Parliament to debate a new Constitution with more checks and balances. Analysts believe that a new Constitution could be widely debated and put in place by year-end, with elections being postponed until mid-2008.
”There is nothing wrong with harmonising elections, what they should do is resolve the political impasse by having an all-inclusive process that takes on board other political parties and civic groups and harmonise elections under a new political dispensation,” says Tendayi Dumbutshena, head of the Crisis Coalition which is spearheading political reforms in Zimbabwe. ”The outcome of an election under this will be universally accepted.
”Both Mujuru and Mnangagwa must show statesmanship, and do the right thing — that is, supporting an all-inclusive process that brings this country out of the mess it finds itself in.”
But insiders within the party say the government is too broke to pursue a referendum and ”would rather have Parliament deciding when to harmonise on behalf of the majority after thorough consultations”.