A day after the United Nations endorsed an African Union peacekeeping force for Somalia, and almost two months after the ouster of the Islamists from Mogadishu, analysts on Wednesday warned of spiralling chaos.
At least 12 died and thousands fled the coastal capital, Mogadishu, this week after the fiercest fighting since Ethiopian troops helped Somali government fighters oust the powerful Islamist movement from Mogadishu late last year.
”This is just the beginning of the deterioration. We are inching towards an African Iraq,” said Roland Marchal of the Paris-based CERI international think-tank.
As the UN Security Council on Tuesday unanimously approved the deployment of an AU peacekeeping force to Somalia, thousands of civilians fled Mogadishu to safer regions, highlighting the task awaiting the peacekeepers.
At least 50 people have been killed in recent weeks, many of them civilians, as the suspected Islamists, who have since disbanded into clan-based militia, step up attacks against the government and its Ethiopian backers.
Gunmen have been carrying out heavy attacks, often sparking deadly battles with civilians suffering the brunt of the increasing insurgency.
”The situation will further deteriorate,” predicted Francois Gringon, director of the Africa programme of Brussels-based International Crisis Group.
”There are actions attributable to the members of the Islamist extremists, but they should not be blamed for everything,” he added.
Small groups of a dozen people were leading the violence, without any central command, Marchal said.
During their six-month rule of Mogadishu, where they routed a United States-backed warlord alliance after months of bloody combats, the Islamists brought a semblance of order and security by imposing strict observance of Sharia law.
Many now fear a return of the chaos that reigned in the country for years as warlords scrambled for control after dictator Siad Barre was overthrown in 1991.
The British-drafted UN resolution passed Tuesday by the 15-member council authorises the AU force to deploy for six months to help secure and stabilise the lawless nation.
Uganda has offered to contribute two 1 500-strong battalions to the proposed 8 000-strong peacekeeping force, called the Amisom.
Nigeria announced on Tuesday it would deploy 850 troops in Somalia by mid-April as part of an AU force. Officials say they also have received troop pledges from Burundi, Malawi and Ghana. So far, however, the AU has managed to raise only half of the 8 000 troops.
The AU force has been hamstrung by bickering within the East African bloc that is supposed to run the force as well as funding and manpower woes and opposition from Islamists.
Somali insurgents have vowed to attack and kill the potential peacekeepers.
Prime Minister Mohamed Ali Gedi has repeatedly called for an urgent deployment of the troops, while a broad-based reconciliation conference announced by President Abdullahi Yusuf is yet to be held.
”Yusuf is talking about reconciliation but not power-sharing,” Grignon said. ”Without a real political process, there is a risk of an organised insurrection.” — Sapa-AFP