President Robert Mugabe’s ruling party is splintering under the impact of Zimbabwe’s economic crisis and may seek to ease him out of office to stop a bloody political meltdown, an influential think tank said.
The International Crisis Group (ICG) said increasing desperation among senior figures in Mugabe’s ruling Zanu-PF, as well as a newly energised opposition, could combine to block Mugabe’s attempts to extend his term in office beyond 2008.
”The situation is reminiscent of the last stages of Mobutu’s reign in the [Democratic Republic of] Congo,” the Brussels-based ICG said in a report, referring to former President Mobutu Sese Seko.
”Economic issues, discontent among underpaid police and troops and the increasing willingness of opposition parties and civil society to protest in the streets all increase the risk of sudden major violence.”
The ICG said Zimbabwe’s economic collapse, which has seen inflation hit almost 1 600%, widespread food shortages and one of the most drastic peacetime contractions of per capita income ever recorded, has seen Zanu-PF break into three distinct factions — two of which oppose Mugabe.
It also noted what it said was rising discontent in the armed forces, which has been the main bulwark of support for Mugabe’s rule since he guided Zimbabwe to independence from Britain in 1980.
”Control of the military and security apparatus has become the new battle ground,” it said.
The first signs the 83-year-old leader faced potential rebellion came in December, when a Zanu-PF congress declined to explicitly back extending his rule for two years to 2010 under a plan to coordinate presidential and parliamentary elections.
Mugabe’s loyalists in Zanu-PF must now persuade the party’s powerful central committee to back the proposal in March, and it would then go to Parliament for approval probably in July.
The ICG said the succession issue has seen Zanu-PF divide into three distinct camps: one backing Mugabe, one led by retired army General Solomon Mujuru — whose wife Joyce is now vice-president and a potential Mugabe successor — and a third led by former Speaker of Parliament Emmerson Mnangagwa.
Money talks
The report said Mugabe’s Zanu-PF rivals were increasingly motivated by the collapse of their own business interests under the pressure of US and European sanctions.
It also said they were anxious to re-engage with the international community while Zanu-PF remains in power, rather than wait for a potentially explosive political showdown.
These factors could create an alliance that would see Zanu-PF itself block Mugabe’s plan, either by moving him aside as a figurehead president and appointing a prime minister, or simply by forcing his retirement, the ICG said.
Manoeuvres within Zanu-PF come as the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) — itself riven by factional infighting — finds new energy, the ICG report said.
”Efforts have been made to resolve differences,” the report said. ”Both sides suspect the original split was exacerbated by CIO [secret intelligence] infiltrators.”
While the MDC remains too weak to remove Mugabe on its own, increased coordination with labour unions, church groups and civic organisations could see more strategic non-violent protests that would further increase pressure, the report said.
”Elements within Zanu-PF and the MDC have also discussed a possible agreement on the way forward” to ease Mugabe out in 2008, the report said, quoting unnamed senior Zanu-PF insiders.
While any potential Mugabe exit plan would likely require guarantees of immunity from domestic or international prosecution and protection of his personal assets, the ICG said this might be the best way out of Zimbabwe’s current despair. – Reuters