Presidential hopefuls within the ruling Zanu-PF party are courting international diplomats to put pressure on 83-year-old President Robert Mugabe either to step down or embrace political reforms.
Their thinking is that Mugabe’s departure will pull the country out of a deepening economic crisis.
Vice-President Joice Mujuru’s husband, retired General Solomon Mujuru, is leading the negotiations for reforms and upping the stakes by mobilising the party membership to push for leadership renewal ahead of the expiration of Mugabe’s term in March next year. Insiders within Zanu-PF and the opposition told the Mail & Guardian that Mujuru has met key European Union diplomats.
The same sources told the M&G that, during a heated Politburo meeting last November, Mujuru told Mugabe that he had been in touch with international diplomats and that they are deeply concerned about the growing crisis. Mugabe reportedly reacted angrily, asking in which capacity Mujuru was meeting with members of the diplomatic corps.
‘The Mujuru camp has been very active on the diplomatic dinner circuit of Harare,” said Tendayi Biti, secretary general of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change. ”They have been wining and dining. They are being taken seriously, obviously because the issues they debate centre on how best the country can be rescued from the current mess it finds itself in,” he said.
The M&G is reliably informed that Mujuru held talks with the British and French ambassadors in Harare, but has been unable to confirm this with either embassy. What is not clear is whether Mujuru and his allies have made any headway.
As pressure builds, Mugabe is considering dissolving Parliament early next year and standing as the party’s candidate in the presidential elections in 2008, while also bringing forward parliamentary elections initially scheduled for 2010.
Insiders within the Cabinet revealed that it is one of many options available to Mugabe, who has consulted key officials within the justice ministry and the intelligence agency about the best way to cling to power, given his party’s unwillingness to endorse his plan to hang around until 2010. Despite growing pressure within his own party, it appears Mugabe is determined to hold on to power.
Global think tank International Crisis Group (ICG), which released a report on Zimbabwe this week, believes that Mugabe remains ”in a strong position to choose the time and manner of his departure”, but that growing economic and political pressures could hasten him into retirement. It also warns that ”Zanu-PF has broken into factions which could prove dangerous for the president.”
Insiders revealed that Mugabe ”is now caught between a rock and hard place”, as he tries to figure out how he can survive while rival camps try to edge him out.
Mujuru and Housing Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa are both waiting for a chance to grab his job.
”Mugabe may have turned his back on Mujuru, but there is no evidence he supports Mnangagwa. Actually, he doesn’t know who to trust within his party and government, and he cannot solely rely on advice from securocrats and bank on their support,” said a member of the ruling party’s administrative organ, the central committee.
”Naturally, Mugabe is a loner; he doesn’t have friends. He is hardworking, though, but unlike before, he is increasingly consulting openly on crucial matters and that tells you all is not well,” the source said.
”Again, ministers are openly resigning and, even in politburo meetings, some are taking him to task over crucial matters. Things, I think, are changing, albeit slowly,’ he said.
”Mugabe doesn’t trust either of the two factions,” says Eldred Masunungure, a political science lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe. ”He prefers a new driver he can trust — not one who will send him to jail, but someone who is dependable,” he said.
”Whoever succeeds him will not be one of the two [Mujuru or Mnangagwa],” he added. ”Given the way he has rubbed each of the camps the wrong way, he won’t trust either.”
‘The next five months are crucial,’ says Crisis Group report
Zambia has broken ranks with the region on the meltdown in Zimbabwe by declaring that ”there is a serious problem” in its southern neighbour.
Zambian Foreign Affairs Minister Mundia Sikatana told Southern African Development Community (SADC) executive secretary Thomaz Salomao in Lusaka that hordes of Zimbabweans were streaming into Zambia looking for food. He said the SADC summit scheduled for August should look for ways to halt the crisis by facilitating dialogue between Zimbabwe and the European Union.
The statement comes in the same week as the International Crisis Group’s warning that the next five months are going to be crucial in the resolution of Zimbabwe’s crisis.
”[They] will determine whether Mugabe gets his party’s endorsement to extend his term to 2010, or Zanu-PF chooses a new candidate and lays the groundwork for presidential elections in March 2008 as scheduled,” the report says.
The report adds that strong pressure will be exerted by the economy and that there are reports that pay disparities within the security services risk propelling officers into ”active rebellion against the government”.
The report notes the potential for a resurgent political opposition. It says the MDC would greatly benefit from reconciliation, noting how the MDC’s domestic and international image has dipped since the split.
The report states that ”failure to reconcile could kill any potential deal with ruling party moderates”, adding that ”the next election may be the last chance for current MDC leaders”.
The International Crisis Group also recommends that the SADC and South Africa engage with the United States and the EU to adopt a joint strategy for resolving the crisis, and calls upon the SADC Organ on Politics, Defence and Security Co-operation to convene an urgent meeting to consider the regional consequences of the economic meltdown in Zimbabwe.
Portugal, which is to hold the EU presidency in the second half of 2007, is urged not to invite Mugabe and other government members to the EU-AU summit unless significant reforms have already been undertaken.
The full report can be found at www.crisisgroup.org.