The major threat to Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe comes from disgruntled members of his Zanu-PF party upset with his plans to extend his rule rather than the official opposition, according to analysts.
Mugabe, the 83-year-old who has ruled Zimbabwe since independence in 1980 from Britain, has attracted widespread international criticism for ordering a brutal crackdown on the opposition.
But while Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the main opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), may be attracting the headlines after his arrest and alleged beating, a bigger danger to Mugabe’s rule lurks closer to home.
”Mugabe is facing greater opposition than at any other time within Zanu-PF,” said Takavafira Zhou, a political analyst and history lecturer at Masvingo State University in southern Zimbabwe.
Mugabe revealed in an interview over the weekend that he would like to stand for another six-year term of office in 2008, which would mean he would be 90 by its completion.
His comments come as his Zanu-PF party is considering an earlier call by Mugabe for the 2008 presidential polls to be held over until 2010, ostensibly to coincide with parliamentary elections.
While the Zanu-PF annual conference in December did pass a number of resolutions backing such a delay, the move still needs approval from the powerful central committee and Parliament.
Zhou said a decision by Mugabe to stand in presidential elections in 2008 was a result of simmering opposition in the ruling party to the plan to postpone the presidential elections by two years.
”There is a feeling within Zanu-PF that he should step down in 2008 as he indicated. There are about three factions now jostling for the post but the problem is that no one has emerged so far who commands the respect Mugabe commands in Zanu-PF.”
Elphus Mukonoweshuro, a political science professor at the University of Zimbabwe, said Zanu-PF had been split since Mugabe suggested three years ago that he would step down at the end of his current term and senior members of the party started jostling to succeed him.
When Joyce Mujuru was elevated to vice-president in December 2004, Mugabe appeared to have anointed her as his successor, saying she was destined for higher office.
”Mugabe locked himself into an irreversible groove to departure,” Mukonoweshuro said. ”Now he is trying to undo it. His party is split and he appears to have run out of any strategy to weld together a sustainable coalition of support.
”The factions have weakened Mugabe’s support base. He has been reduced to a weak leader struggling to build his own independent faction.”
Relations with Mujuru appear to have significantly cooled, and she was noticeably absent from Mugabe’s birthday celebrations last month.
A recent report by the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank, said that Mujuru’s husband Solomon was ”leading the campaign to force Mugabe into retirement when his term expires in 2008”.
”Zanu-PF officials say Mujuru’s argument resonates with other key party leaders, though many are afraid to openly denounce Mugabe’s proposal,” the ICG added.
While Mugabe has had to endure a raft of public-sector strikes, the security forces have so far remained loyal to him.
Zhou said that their continued support was crucial to Mugabe’s survival strategy and saw little sign of their changing sides.
”If the armed forces take sides with him, he will use the armed forces against the internal opposition,” said Zhou.
”If the armed forces join the side of the one of the factions, then the armed forces could also turn against him. This is highly unlikely, considering the history of the armed forces.” — Sapa