/ 9 April 2007

Climate change: Adapt or die, says minister

Not only should the emission of greenhouse gases be prevented, but adapting to climate change must also be prioritised, Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism Marthinus van Schalkwyk said on Sunday.

He said the findings released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) over the weekend — which were worse than he expected — contain a ”stark warning on the tremendous risks of climate change”.

The report drew sharp attention to the challenges facing policymakers, but also to the challenges of everyday living. ”We must continue to prevent the emission of greenhouse gases that cause climate change, but just as important is that adapting to climate change is now a priority,” he said.

Van Schalkwyk said the review by more than a hundred expert scientists deals a blow to climate sceptics and is a clarion call to ensure a legacy for future generations. Consensus was reached by scientists that if no action is taken there will be ”a massive disruption, loss of human life and species loss”.

He called on nations like the United States — which has historically contributed most to this problem — to shoulder their responsibility to lead in combating climate change and to assist vulnerable developing countries to adapt to and deal with the devastating effects.

The conclusion from the IPCC’s first working group was that human activities are changing the climate.

”Working group two has identified several key impacts around the world … [including] the likelihood that climate change may also be amplified before mid-century by carbon emissions from the natural world — a particularly dangerous transition point that we want to avoid at all costs.”

There are also risks of increasingly high rates of extinction in wildlife species as temperatures are set to rise by between 1,5 and 2,5 degrees Celsius, he said.

”South African ecosystems seem particularly vulnerable to this risk, with many endemic species at risk in the fynbos, succulent Karoo and other ecosystems.”

The report highlights that poor countries, especially in Africa and Asia, will be most affected by climate change.

According to Van Schalkwyk’s review of the findings, Africa is one of the continents most vulnerable to climate variability and change because of multiple stresses and low adaptive capacity.

”Africa is, importantly, at risk from increasing water stress in certain regions, especially in Southern Africa, which will have significant impacts on livelihoods of people in all sectors of society, but particularly the poor.”

By 2020, between 75-million and 250-million people are projected to be exposed to increased water stress due to climate change. In combination with increased water-supply demands, this will adversely affect livelihoods and exacerbate water-related problems.

”Agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries and regions is projected to be severely compromised by climate variability and change,” he said. ”In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020.”

Local food supplies are also projected to be negatively affected by decreasing fisheries resources in both the sea and large freshwater lakes due to rising water temperatures. This could further be exacerbated by continued over-fishing.

Van Schalkwyk said his department will be ”interrogating” the IPCC’s findings and develop its own strategies and responses to apply for the benefit of all South Africans. — Sapa