Global trade growth will slow slightly in 2007 to 6% as risks in financial and property markets and large commercial imbalances weigh on the global economy, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) said on Thursday.
In their first forecast for 2007, WTO economists said that the outlook for trade was based on expectations that the world economy would expand about 3% this year, slower than last year’s 3,7%.
World trade grew 8% in 2006, above the previous WTO forecast for 7% and the second highest figure since 2000, reflecting stronger than expected economic growth in Japan and Europe, the Geneva-based body said in a report.
Developing countries’ share of world trade rose to a record 36%, with China’s trade growth continuing to outstrip all others, it said.
In the second half of 2006, China’s exports of goods exceeded those of the United States for the first time, although for the year as a whole it ranked third. Germany remained the world’s number one exporter.
Despite its huge trade deficit, the United States registered its best growth in goods’ exports in a decade at more than 14%, the WTO said. When adjusted for prices, United States exports expanded faster than overall world trade and more than its imports.
Of the seven geographic regions used by the WTO, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) of former Soviet Union members had the most dynamic trade growth last year, benefitting from strong fuel and metal prices on world markets, it said.
”The strong performance of 2006 is welcome, particularly the gains made by developing and least-developed countries,” said WTO director general Pascal Lamy.
But Lamy said the uncertainties looming over the global economy in 2007 made it even more important that the WTO succeed in wrapping up its Doha round of free trade negotiations.
The negotiations have missed several deadlines since being launched in the Qatari capital in 2001.
”The uncertainties that lie ahead are a warning for us not to lose sight of the need to continue to reform the world economy,” Lamy said. – Reuters