The Audit Bureau of Circulation’s (ABC) new format of reporting print media circulations – now one-year-old – is receiving both praise and chagrin from local industry operators. It has also brought home debates that have long ranged in more established media industries over just what constitutes a publication’s circulation.
Until December 2006, ABC reported monthly aggregated circulation figures and then averaged them out over half-year periods. However, this format was abandoned early last year in favour of quarterly statistics, disaggregated to show subscriptions, single copy sales, bulk sales, and copies distributed for educational purposes.
Four reporting quarters later, a new disquiet pervades the air, especially in the daily and weekend newspaper counters, and the consumer magazines counter. At issue is the use of third party bulk sales and print media in education (PMIE) sales (to educational institutions) to boost circulation figures.
To fully understand what is at stake, consider circulation data from daily newspapers. The general decline in circulation affecting 15 out the country’s 20 dailies during 2006 is difficult to discern, mainly because of third party bulk PMIE sales. Cape Argus, one of those significantly affected, used non-traditional sales to account for as much as 25 percent of its stated circulation of 73,417 copies in July-September reporting period.
Indeed, four dailies (conspicuously from one media stable) – The Star, Mercury, Pretoria News and Daily News – had immense difficulties staying below the ABC stipulation of claiming no more than 10 percent of total circulation as bulk sales.
The weeklies posted marginally better results during the four quarters, but the disproportionately large bulk sales lingered. The Sunday Times, Weekend Argus, Saturday Star and Pretoria News Saturday battled to keep the ABC rule. The Independent on Saturday and Sunday Tribune also found themselves claiming above 10 percent in two quarters.
The bulk sales problem is also evident in the magazine counter where numerous publications have burst the scales of magnanimity with their “controlled free distribution” volumes. Maverick magazine had the most remarkable circulation story, with 4,820 paid copies and 17,410 free distribution copies! Top Billing and GQ magazines have almost regularly gone beyond the ABC ceiling on bulk sales as have LIG and Femina magazines.
ABC’s audit manager Charles Beiles says third party bulk sales are publications sold in bulk at more than 50 percent of the cover price . Bulk free copies are distributed at events such as conferences or exhibitions.
It is hard to say whether the copies ever end in the consumer’s hands or not and whether they read the copies handed out to them.
Yet not all are as calm about the goings-on in the print media. The tensions over bulk and PMIE sales have been scarcely concealed over the past few months. Citizen editor Martin Williams threw the first follies last August when he accused “certain newspapers” of improving “their figures against the odds.” In a veiled threat, Williams said, “We know the techniques they use to do this but we’ve been reluctant to say much because our motives might have been questioned — With us, you get what you pay for.”
Williams is not alone in raising questions about the role of bulk circulation sales ces jours ci. Some industry insiders have little doubt why we’re seeing more bumph. “It is a way of bumping up your circulation figure”.
The ABC’s decision to revise the presentation format to include all categories of reported circulation sales has shaken the print media industry.
To avoid loopholes, advertisers and media planners should look at paid circulation data instead of basing their decisions on total circulation.
But probably the most revealing – and disturbing – aspect of ABC’s new format is the returns/excluded copies. In their desperate attempts to kick-start their circulations, many newspapers maintaining large print orders that reflect an industry that is willing to take short-term losses in the hope of stable, more promising future.
The returns/excluded copies paint a gleam picture of tough times ahead. The average level is about one returned/excluded copy for every two copies sold. The Citizen is among the most severely affected with returns/ excluded copies exceeding half the daily’s 71,800 copies circulation. During the first half of 2006 the Sunday Times printed 700,000 copies weekly on average, only to receive nearly 230,000 returned/excluded copies a week on average during the second quarter. The newspaper scaled back its print order by over 100,000 copies, and was able to bring the returns to 90,000 copies and 67,600 copies in the third and fourth quarters, respectively.
Indeed, there appears to be a correlation between the tendency to sign away copies as bulk and third party sales on the one hand, and the volume of returns/excluded copies on the other. Maverick magazine, with a controlled free distribution three times its paid circulation, received over 10,000 copies in average returns during each of the four quarters of 2006. Similarly, GQ, noted earlier for its liberal bulk sales policy, saw quarterly returns that were higher than its quarterly single copy sales and subscriptions combined.
The average returns in the woman’s magazine category were markedly higher than other divisions, with titles like Rooi Rose, Elle and Fair Lady receiving returns amounting to over 40 percent of total circulation. For Rooi Rose, it was a ratio of two copies returned for every three copies sold. And in the active youth and sports counters, Seveenten and Sports Illustrated reported returns amounting to 53 percent of their total circulation.
One pundit was quick to point out that ABC’s new format has only highlighted what media buyers and advertising agencies already knew for some time. He may be right on that count. What he couldn’t unpack as quickly was the message underlying all these disturbing observations.
ABC’s first quarter report for 2007 will be keenly awaited next month. But it is its scorecard on the print media well-being that will matter most. The cracks are finally starting to show.
Nixon Kariithi is associate professor of journalism and media studies at the University of the Witwatersrand.