Tony Blair is to make his first working visit to Ramallah on the West Bank in July as a special envoy of the quartet of Middle East peacemakers to discuss Palestinian state-building, it emerged last week after he was confirmed in the high-risk job amid scepticism about his chances of success.
In his new role, announced jointly by the United States, European Union, United Nations and Russia, Blair — as quartet representative — will work on Palestinian government institutions and the rule of law, mobilise international assistance for Palestinians and promote their economic development.
The quartet stopped short of giving Blair an explicit role as mediator between the Israelis and Palestinians in the peace process, but did give him a broad remit to ”liaise with other countries as appropriate in support of the agreed quartet objectives”. Sources close to Blair said he expected his role to be bigger than the one assigned to his predecessor, James Wolfensohn, a former World Bank president who resigned in frustration in April last year and who had focused almost exclusively on the Palestinian economy, preparing for the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
Blair sees his role as preparing the ground for eventual talks on a final, comprehensive settlement between the Palestinians and Israelis, with his immediate task being to help to heal the violent divide in Palestinian politics between Fatah and Hamas.
His appointment left some battered egos and has generated controversy. Russia demanded some last-minute changes to the terms of reference — clarifying the new representative’s precise status — before the announcement was made. Blair also spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The new United Kingdom Prime Minister Gordon Brown was described as angry at having been presented with a fait accompli that may make it difficult for him to formulate his own Middle East policy.
”This keeps Blair interminably in the limelight,” said one senior diplomat, noting that the former British prime minister will be reporting to the UN General Assembly in September, just when Brown will make his maiden appearance there.
Javier Solana, the EU’s foreign policy chief, was also unhappy about having been upstaged, Brussels sources say. The UK Foreign Office, where senior officials knew nothing until last Thursday, is said to be in an ”institutional sulk”.
Blair is understood to have spoken to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his Prime Minister, Salam Fayyad, who are happy with the appointment. He has also spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. Jonathan Powell, Blair’s chief of staff when he was premier, is to work with him. Other officials may follow suit, making up a team of about a dozen experts to be based in East Jerusalem.
Blair is not being asked to run negotiations between the Palestinians and Israel but he will seek Israel’s cooperation in areas such as freedom of movement and access. It was failure to make progress on these issues that led to Wolfensohn’s resignation.
”The quartet recognise that you can’t make significant progress on Palestinian institutions and capabilities without getting the Israelis to help,” said one well-placed official. ”If they want a partner for peace they have to enable improvements. Obviously we hope there will be a political process, but this is an essential component. You won’t get the US and Israel moving until they feel this issue is being tackled.”
Blair’s tasks include mobilising international economic assistance and coordinating donors and agencies such as the UN Relief and Works Agency currently done through an ad hoc liaison committee. Another hot issue is reform of the Palestinian police.
It is already clear that Blair will face a grave problem as Israel makes clear that it will not contemplate any dealings with Hamas, and intends to back Abbas to the hilt. Critics say talk of Palestinian governance and capacity building is meaningless if it ignores 1,4-million people in the Gaza Strip and institutionalises a West Bank-Gaza schism, critics say.
”No one doubts Blair’s status and commitment,” said one figure closely involved in the quartet’s deliberations. ”He came fresh to Northern Ireland but he’s not coming fresh to this and he has an extraordinary amount of baggage. And he’s coming in at the worst possible moment.”
In public, Palestinian leaders welcomed Blair’s appointment. In private, there was scepticism. ”Is he going to be listened to? Are his comments going to be respected? Can he really intervene?” asked Hanan Ashrawi, a Palestinian MP and former peace negotiator. She said the Palestinians did not need help building up their institutions. ”We need third-party involvement to achieve peace, to curb Israeli measures, to end the occupation and to build a state.”
Israeli analysts also noted that their government was reluctant to have an international mediator trying to strike a peace deal. ”If the sides are interested it can happen, if they are not it doesn’t matter who you bring,” said Cameron Brown, deputy director of Global Research in International Affairs at the Interdisciplinary Centre in Herzliya. — Â