The United States’s decision to arm its allies in the Middle East is being seen by many regional experts as a last resort, in anticipation of failure of Washington’s policies on both Iraq and Iran.
The stated aim is to reassure Sunni Arab states that the US will stand by them in the face of uncertainty in Iraq and an increasingly powerful Iran. Such reassurance would not be necessary, some analysts say, if the policy of creating a stable, united Iraq was succeeding.
‘There is a lot of agitation from the Arab regimes who are getting the arms, who are convinced that Iran is going to win in Iraq and the Americans are going to lose,†said Rosemary Hollis, research director at the Chatham House thinktank. ‘The Americans can get away with getting out of Iraq providing they give guarantees of protection for the Arab states.â€
The arms inventory the US intends to sell has not been made public, but one Middle Eastern source said it could include the Patriot air defence system for Jordan, which would help protect the country from a missile attack.
Perhaps even more important than the hardware is the technical cooperation. The presence of US training teams strengthens the belief that Washington would help in a time of crisis.
The increase in already huge US military aid to Israel is a counterbalance, to reassure Israelis they can maintain a ‘qualitative edgeâ€, should any new arms be turned against them. The US is thus stocking both sides of the old Arab-Israeli arms race to contain Iran.
‘You’re looking at the process of toughening up the spine of Jordanians and Egyptians and Saudis,†said Mamoun Fandy, the senior fellow for Gulf security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He said the move could be aimed at securing Arab acquiescence in future Israeli or US air strikes against Iran. Both Israel and the US have explored the option of bombing Iranian nuclear sites if Tehran continues to enrich uranium.
Mounting US claims of covert Iranian action in Iraq have also raised the possibility that the US could carry out raids inside Iran aimed at the al-Quds unit within the Islamic Revolutionary Guards.
Such raids could turn the Iraq insurgency into a regional war overnight, a contingency against which the US’s nervous friends are seeking insurance.
The new arms bonanza also marks the definitive end to US aspirations to spread democracy throughout the Middle East, observers say. Among the main Arab recipients are regimes criticised for human rights abuses, now overlooked to build a broad alliance against Iran.
‘What a reversal. The [US] line was: We’ve been propping up these regimes all this time, and now we’re going to mend our ways,†Ms Hollis said. ‘There’s not a whisper of that any more.†—