President Vladimir Putin accepted the resignation on Wednesday of his prime minister and government, paving the way for the Russian leader to hand-pick a successor when he steps down next year.
The resignation of Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov and the entire Cabinet — shown on state-run Vesti television — came three months before parliamentary elections and less than six months ahead of a presidential poll to replace Putin. ”I accept your resignation,” Putin told Fradkov.
Officials were silent on Fradkov’s replacement, but speculation is intensifying that Putin ally and KGB veteran Sergei Ivanov, currently the First Deputy Premier, will get the nod and instantly become favourite for the presidency in 2008.
Putin himself made clear that the reshuffle lays the ground for his successor. ”We all have to think together how to build the structure of the government and leadership so that it better corresponds to the pre-election period and prepares the country for the period after the presidential election,” he said.
Fradkov will retain his post until the State Duma, the Lower House of Parliament, nominates a new candidate, Putin was quoted as saying by RIA Novosti. That must happen by September 26.
Russians remain largely in the dark over who could replace Putin, required by the Constitution to step down at the end of his second four-year term.
Not one big beast of Russian politics has declared his candidacy, leaving the world struggling to predict the next head of the world’s leading energy producer and nuclear superpower — a guessing game that can resemble Soviet-era ”Kremlinology”.
The well-connected daily Vedomosti reported on Wednesday that Ivanov (54) would soon replace Fradkov. ”Sergei Ivanov could be appointed prime minister very shortly, a source close to the presidential administration said yesterday. The issue is practically decided,” the daily wrote.
Ivanov has never said he will run for president, but is widely considered a favourite, along with the other First Deputy Premier, Dmitry Medvedev. However, if he were raised to prime minister that would be seen as all but anointing him for the top job.
Putin took the same route to the Kremlin: he was named premier in 1999, then elected president against little competition in 2000.
Like Putin, Ivanov has a long background in the feared Soviet KGB. He has since served as defence minister, before being moved to the post of first deputy premier with an emphasis on the state’s growing role in industry.
Also similar to Putin’s pre-Kremlin career, Ivanov has never held elected office.
”Preparation is under way for Ivanov to take the premier’s post,” Moscow Carnegie Centre analyst Alexei Malashenko told the radio. ”It repeats just about the same scenario as when Putin came to power.”
Ivanov, a suave, fluent English-speaker, is shown almost daily on state-run television. During the summer, state television repeatedly broadcast footage of him chairing a Cabinet meeting when both Putin and Fradkov were on holiday.
And last week Ivanov was even filmed playing bowls with Putin, a photo op that some observers saw as a sure sign that Putin had made his choice of successor.
However, Kremlinology remains as murky as the days when the line-up of leaders at Red Square parades was scrutinised for clues to politburo policy.
”We are involved in deciphering signals from above. It’s total opaqueness in decision-making. It signifies the separation of the state from society,” Moscow Carnegie Centre analyst Masha Lipman said. — Sapa-AFP