Politicians and mathematics don’t always go together, but the coming weeks could see campaigners doing the math to determine whether President Thabo Mbeki, businessman Tokyo Sexwale or Jacob Zuma are leading the nominations for the top job in the ANC.
Although Zuma has received the largest share of public support from ANC structures, those lobbying for Mbeki say the picture will change dramatically in the coming weeks. By the time nominations close at the end of November, Mbeki will be the runaway favourite, they claim.
So confident are they that they believe Mbeki could stand unopposed — with a trade-off having been reached for Zuma and secretary general Kgalema Motlanthe to take up other positions in the top six.
The Mbeki lobby asserts this despite the current scenario, where Zuma can already count on the support of three “provinces”: the Youth League (considered a “province”), Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal.
The Mail & Guardian spoke to ANC Eastern Cape secretary Siphato Handi and another leading organiser of the Mbeki group, who preferred to remain anonymous, about progress made since the province announced late last year that it would persuade him to stay for another term as president.
They said they have at least five provinces in the bag and could secure victory by the end of November. “We know where every branch general meeting is happening in the coming weeks and we are attending them to make sure that the voting delegates selected for conference are comrades we can trust,” Handi said.
Mbeki’s lobby conceded that they would lose KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and the Youth League to Zuma but declared everything else “game”.
Pointing out that Mbeki has 90% of Eastern Cape’s 906 voting dele-gates (the biggest delegation) and 90% of voting power in the North West and Western Cape, the lobbyists claimed they would win at least 60% of Limpopo, Gauteng and Northern Cape.
The strategists said their analysis showed that many of the branches Zuma was relying on for support were were not in good standing and could therefore not send voting dele-gates to national conference.
Handi assured the M&G they were not taking a winner-takes-all approach and would be open to horse trading towards the end of the nomination process. But, they added, they would not compromise on the posts of president and secretary, which they have earmarked for Mosioua Lekota. “Comrade Terror is one of the most principled ANC leaders. Whatever his faults, you know that he will always call a spade a spade without flinching.”
This, said the Mbeki group organiser, had been the weakness of the current secretary general, Motlanthe, who he accuses of prevaricating at crucial times when the ANC had problems.
Defending Mbeki’s record, he said: “He has the been the best leader we could possibly have. Under him the ANC has increased its support in the last two general elections. He has lived a lifestyle of modesty and carried himself in a disciplined fashion. Overall he has been a good president, despite obvious mistakes such as appointing people like Free State Premier Beatrice Marshoff. But it was the ANC in 1997 that gave the president those powers and not Mbeki himself. And the truth is that he exercised those powers in consultation with the ANC. Kgalema was consulted on most of these decisions.”
On Mbeki’s inability to work with other alliance leaders, he said the president did have cordial relations with Cosatu and the South African Communist Party when Mbhazima Shilowa was Cosatu general secretary and Charles Nqakula was SACP secretary.
The lobbyist said despite the fact that the group had nominated Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma for the deputy president — which makes her the automatic candidate for the next national president in the 2009 national elections — there was still a strong view that Joel Netshitenzhe should be persuaded to be the next president. Netshitenzhe has repeatedly refused offers to stand as president and is believed to have reluctantly accepted nomination as national chairperson. “We still have two years to persuade him.”
The list is as follows: Mbeki for president, Dlamini-Zuma for deputy, Lekota for secretary, Thoko Didiza for deputy secretary and Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka for treasurer general.
The lobbyist did not believe that Tokyo Sexwale would be a factor in the presidential race, despite his late surge into the race. Interestingly, some of the Western Cape branches supporting Mbeki nominated Sexwale for deputy president.
The Mbeki list includes two individuals left in the cold by Cosatu and the SACP: Willie Madisha and Phillip Dexter. Despite criticism against him, Motlanthe is first on the list outside the top six.
The list is made up of 90 names in anticipation of the extension of the national executive committee from the current 60 members.