The official review of Rugby World Cup 2007 was published last week and, notwithstanding the usual caveat concerning lies, damned lies and statistics, it makes for an interesting read, writes former England and British Lions lock Paul Ackford in the Daily Telegraph.
- Most disastrous change of tack, part one
In November 2006, New Zealand defeated France, in France, 47-3. The All Blacks scored seven tries, created 43 rucks and kicked the ball 29 times. Less than a year later in their World Cup quarterfinal the Blacks fashioned 165 rucks, about 100 more than their average, scored one try and lost 20-18.
- Most disastrous change of tack, part two
A month before the tournament started, France beat England 22-9, kicking the ball only 19 times. In their semifinal, France kicked on 46 occasions and lost 14-9. The lesson from both examples? Don’t change your strategy simply because you’re at the sudden-death end of a World Cup.
- It’s official. England’s strike-rate is abysmal
Of the teams that qualified for the knockout stages, England were by far the weakest at turning possession into tries. New Zealand were the most clinical in the pool stages scoring at a rate of one try every 91 seconds of possession, followed by Australia who were successful every 140 seconds. South Africa 160 seconds, France 197, Fiji 277, Scotland 298 and Argentina 311 were the next most efficient. Bottom of the pile were England, who took more than seven minutes to cross the line.
- More bad news. England’s defence wasn’t up to much either
When compared to the other seven countries that made the quarterfinals, only Fiji (one try every 307 seconds) and Scotland (one in 519 seconds) had leakier defences than England’s (one every 532 seconds) in the group section. Argentina had the meanest defence, conceding one try for every 34 minutes the opposition had the ball.
- Who needs backs?
Portugal, Fiji, Tonga, Romania and the United States were the only countries whose forwards managed to score more tries than their backs.
- Get the first phase right and the results will follow
Of the 296 tries that were scored in the tournament, 32% came from line-outs, 18% from scrums, 17% from turnover ball and 15% from opposition kicks. This was roughly similar to the trends in Australia in 2003 except that fewer tries (9%) came off poor kicks.
- More risks are being taken, provided you play your rugby Down Under
In the 2003 tournament, 25% of tries originated from within the scoring team’s own half, yet four years later this had jumped to 33%. However, there is a marked distinction between the two hemispheres. In 2007, Australia, South Africa and New Zealand ran in 40 tries from their own half of the field, while England, Scotland, Italy, France, Wales and Ireland could manage only 20.
- Fact or fiction?
Do you need long periods of possession to disorganise defences and create holes? Fiction. Nearly 300 tries were scored during the World Cup, an overwhelming 83% of those requiring three or fewer rucks or mauls. And if further proof is needed that endless recycling of possession is redundant, 53% of those tries took three or fewer passes.
- No reward for scoring early
Only four nations — England, Ireland, Samoa and Portugal — scored more tries in the first half of their contests than the second. New Zealand and Italy were beautifully balanced in that they managed the same number in each period, while the rest saved their best until last. Wales took the longest to warm up, posting 18 of their 23 tries in the second period. Samoa fizzled out quickest, grabbing four of their five by halftime.
- They couldn’t kick my granny out of Sainsbury’s
England were the seventh worst team out of the 20 competing nations when it came to successfully converting penalties, dropped goals and conversions. Their success rate of 67% put them ahead of Australia, Wales, Namibia, Georgia, Ireland and Romania but behind the rest. Scotland were the most efficient, registering 96%. That consisted of eight from nine penalties, 15 out of 15 conversions and none from two dropped goal attempts. Ah yes, those pesky dropped goals which were supposed to be crucial in determining world champions. There were 14 successful dropped goals from 83 attempts overall, a success rate of only 17 per cent. Of those 14, England accounted for five and Argentina four. France attempted five dropped goals in the knockout stages, none of which succeeded.
- Secret to winning World Cups? Don’t have the ball
In the pool stages the team with most possession won 68% of the time but this dipped to a staggering 13%, or one match out of the eight in the knockout phase. In each of their three sudden-death contests South Africa had less ball than their opponents. And even in the pool stages they were only in possession for longer spells than Portugal, Samoa and Namibia. – Sapa