John Howard’s power on the wane

Lying on the western fringes of Sydney, Penrith, a key battlegound in Saturday’s election, is the epitome of blue-collar Australian suburbia. It is a town of sprawling houses, well-kept gardens with giant barbecues and cars in every driveway; some of the houses are already extravagantly decorated with Christmas lights and Santas on sleighs.

This used to be one of Labour’s traditional heartlands until Prime Minister John Howard and his right-wing Liberal-National Coalition Party came along 11 years ago. He persuaded ordinary working men and women in modest circumstances, those who would never own stocks and shares or investment property, that they too, could join in his great Australian dream of prosperity for all.

For many years they did well under ‘Little Johnnie”. With the economy growing strongly, inflation at moderate levels and low unemployment, blue-collar men and women bought bigger houses, better cars, plasma TV screens and even the occasional boat.

Now they are feeling the pain. While middle- to upper-class Australians in the inner cities are able to service their mortgages and other personal debt, the spending power of working-class Australians has plummeted. Rising interest rates — six successive increases since the last election in 2004 — as well as the cost of living are hitting hard.

The economy is the key issue for voters. A new poll shows Labour on track to win but Howard claims his government can still emerge victorious. ‘I believe that as we get closer to the election people will focus on one simple question — who is better able to manage this $1,1-trillion economy?” he told Southern Cross Broadcasting.

That question is being asked with increasing urgency in Penrith — and Howard might not like the answer many are coming up with. The town could fall to Labour, with only a 2,9% swing needed to take it away from the Liberals.

Successive interest rate hikes have forced people to consider down-sizing because of worries about meeting their mortgage payments, only to find that house prices have stagnated, trapping them. There is a plethora of For Sale signs in the tidy gardens and not enough buyers. Many people have seen the value of the family home fall by at least 10%.

One of those who will be switching sides, from backing Howard to voting for Labour’s Kevin Rudd, is housewife Wendy Croft. ‘I think [Howard’s] just told a lot of lies. People are losing their jobs. They’re worried about their mortgages and the price of food. Rudd might not be any better, but I’ve decided that I’m fed up and it’s time to have somebody else.”

Another considering giving her vote to Rudd is Jackie Gow, a cleaner at the local hospital and a mother of four children. ‘It’s hard to make ends meet. The cost of living, the cost of childcare, it’s all gone up.” She is also unhappy that the government’s industrial relations reform will hit her pay and conditions. ‘Sunday is just going to become a normal day under individual contracts.That’s more money that I’ll be losing.”

On the banks of the Nepean River, children are picking mulberries, their hands, faces and T-shirts stained with red juice, while their parents sit around over the remains of a barbecue. ‘Who’s going to win this election? A politician. Whoever it is, we’ll get nothing,” says Brian Mitchell, a lorry driver. His wife Mel is similarly disillusioned. ‘To be honest, I don’t trust any of them. Every­body says the economy’s strong but we’re struggling.”

Labour’s candidate, David Bradbury, whose campaign slogan is Working Families First, says people feel betrayed by Howard. ‘The significant elephant in the 2004 campaign was the prime minister’s promise to keep interest rates low. There have been 10 consecutive rises since he came to power in 1996. This is an outer suburban electorate with very little public transport and people can’t get about without their cars, so the price of petrol is a big factor. There’s been a general increase in groceries and childcare costs.”

Karen Chijoff, the Liberal candidate, says interest rates were higher under Labour. ‘Like many local families, my husband and I work hard to raise our children and pay the mortgage. That’s why it is so important to us that the economy is well managed,” she said.

This part of Sydney has become a symbolic trophy for both parties, says David Burchell, a University of West Sydney academic who has been studying marginal seats. ‘Labour victories in some of these marginals might be harbingers of a change of government, but they would also signal a return to Labour on the part of some of its historic constituents,” he said. —