Insecurity in eastern Chad is worsening as President Idriss Déby Itno’s armed forces battle rebels on several fronts.
The Chadian army has launched several major offensives against rebel positions since a month-long ceasefire fell apart recently and hundreds of fighters have been killed and wounded.
While losses have been extremely heavy, neither side has managed to inflict a fatal blow on the other, meaning fighting is likely to continue.
Early battles saw government forces attack the United Force for Democracy and Development (UFDD), Chad’s most prominent rebel group, which is led by the former diplomat Mahamat Nouri.
Those clashes proved extremely bloody: scores of Chadian soldiers were wounded and had to be evacuated to at least three other African countries as hospitals in Chad struggled to cope.
This week the government also attacked the Rally of Forces for Change (RFC), a rebel group led by Déby Itno’s uncle, Timan Erdimi.
As insecurity worsens, both humanitarians and the international community will be watching events unfold with keen interest. The UN and other charities that work with almost half a million displaced along Chad’s border with Darfur are afraid violence could spill over into refugee camps, or that aid workers could be caught up in events.
Meanwhile, politicians back in Europe also have a vested interest in Chad’s stability. More than 4 000 EU troops are due to start arriving in the country in January next year.
Their mandate is humanitarian in nature and they will not want to become involved in internal politics. There are increasing concerns about how the mission will be received.
Rebels recently accused Chad’s former colonial power, France, of supplying intelligence to the Chadian Army that is then used to bomb their positions.
Last week UFDD declared war on all foreign troops — notably the French — and some countries supplying soldiers for the EU mission might become nervous. Troops were due to start arriving in October, but logistical delays with air support now mean it could be May 2008 before a full contingent is in place.
In addition to France, which will provide the bulk of the troops, several European countries have volunteered soldiers for the mission, including Ireland, Poland, Sweden, Finland and Holland.
But some observers are worried about how much risk these countries are willing to take.
”Once they get here it will be a real test of nerve,” a senior military strategist told the Mail & Guardian. ”Among European countries there is a general fatigue over Darfur and a genuine feeling that no mission in Africa is worth having body bags come home for.”
As well as concerns over whether EU troops could be targeted, there are practical issues to address, such as how the soldiers will be identified on the ground. The plan is for troops to add a second badge bearing the EU logo — but some fear this will not be enough to distinguish them from French troops, who are distrusted by many Chadians.
The EU force’s relatively short mandate of one year also is causing concern.
”The real problem will be the exit strategy,” said the military source. ”The nightmare scenario is we scramble to get troops on the ground, after one year we pull out and the UN peacekeepers in Darfur are not yet ready to take over, so there is a security vacuum.”
As events in Chad continue to worsen, the security situation across the border in neighbouring Darfur is becoming even more dire.
Some observers believe the Chadian rebels’ threat to foreign troops was stage-managed by Khartoum, which is known to arm and support them.
Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir does not want UN troops in Darfur and many believe it’s possible he is doing whatever he can to prevent EU troops from deploying in Chad.
Both Khartoum and Ndjamena accuse each other of supporting rebels who are trying to bring down the others’ regime, and the two crises are intimately linked.
As long as war is raging in Chad there is little prospect of peace for Darfur.
Security on both sides of the Chad-Sudan border is deteriorating rapidly and, in the months ahead, everyone from civilians to European soldiers risks being caught in the crossfire.