/ 25 February 2008

After 49 years of Fidel, Cuba ushers in the era of Raúl

Cuba’s national assembly named Raúl Castro as head of state on Sunday night, formally ending 49 years of Fidel Castro’s dominance.

The 614-member body accepted the 76-year-old defence minister and constitutionally designated successor as the candidate to take over from his elder brother, a transfer of power which was rubber-stamped in a vote on Sunday night.

The mood in the chamber was business-like and betrayed little outward sense of drama or history in the making, a deliberate effort to project continuity.

The streets of Havana were quiet as people absorbed the latest step in Fidel’s withdrawal from public life, a choreographed transition initiated 19 months ago when he provisionally ceded power to undergo emergency intestinal surgery. Last week the convalescing 81-year-old said he would not accept another term as president.

Raúl, who has headed a caretaker government, was given a standing ovation by the assembly before the vote that confirmed him as head of state and government. The assembly was also due to name a 31-member council of state which will form a de facto Cabinet.

The dearth of suspense underscored the communist regime’s control over the island and its 11-million people, many of whom hanker for relief from poverty harsher than that experienced in eastern Europe before the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Exiles in Miami who for decades have dreamed of Fidel’s exit did not dance in the streets or set off fireworks, saying jubilation would have to wait for his death and the regime’s crumbling.

The Bush administration called on Havana to end repression and move towards democracy, an implicit acknowledgment that its Caribbean foe was firmly in control and retained the initiative despite Washington’s economic embargo.

”We urge the Cuban government to begin a process of peaceful, democratic change by releasing all political prisoners, respecting human rights and creating a clear pathway toward free and fair elections,” Condoleezza Rice, the Secretary of State, said in a statement.

It remains unclear to what extent Fidel will retain influence. He remains the leader of the Communist Party and an assembly member and still writes newspaper editorials, though the byline has changed from ”Commander in Chief” to ”Comrade Fidel”.

The mention of his name prompted a standing ovation in the assembly. The assembly, whose members are elected from a list fixed by the authorities, traditionally has been a rubber-stamp for the ”maximum commandante”, who has ruled since the 1959 revolution.

Under a new president the assembly and especially the council of state are expected to wield more power. Raúl, a military man and administrator who has long shunned the limelight, is believed to favour a Chinese-type economic liberalisation to ease poverty without loosening political control. He has encouraged debate and criticism of the system, raising expectations that a focus on delivering better food, transport and housing rather than ideological rhetoric will characterise his rule. Under Raúl the military has taken control of much of the economy and embedded so-called ”Raúlista” senior officers in political power.

Yet since taking over as caretaker leader the younger Castro has attempted few reforms, possibly because his older brother and other ideological purists have applied the brakes, arguing that economic support from oil-rich Venezuela would permit a return to core communism.

”It is impossible to predict the path that Cuba will follow,” said Moises Naim, of Foreign Policy magazine. ”The most likely scenario is a messy hybrid that continues with much of the current policies and politics but where different approaches are periodically tested, embraced or discarded.” Some analysts had speculated that the assembly may skip a generation and elevate Ricardo Alarcón, the assembly speaker ahead of Raúl. But in the first round of voting Alarcón was unanimously nominated for re-election to his post. – Guardian Newspapers Limited 2008