Pakistan has shown the door to mullahs and delivered a stern warning to Pervez Musharraf, backing the opposition to Musharraf’s despotic handling of the judiciary, to his high-handedness against independent media and to political cronyism. Musharraf’s future is left looking bleak, while Pakistan gets a fighting chance to put its house in order.
The pattern was not unexpected, but few trusted the state machinery to conduct fair elections. Pre-poll rigging was in full swing till the end, caretakers’ partiality towards pro-Musharraf parties was obvious, and the election commission’s neutrality was in doubt. While a string of suicide bombings haunted voters, ordinary Pakistanis have shown that they still believe in democracy.
Musharraf’s hopes for a hung Parliament have been dashed. The Pakistan People’s Party, though far short of a simple majority, has emerged as the largest political party. The sympathy vote in the wake of Benazir Bhutto’s assassination only had a moderate impact, though her death surely dealt a fatal blow to the prospects of the pro-Musharraf Muslim League (PML-Q).
The rival PML-N faction, led by former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, received the second-highest number of votes in the National Assembly and the highest number of seats in the Punjab assembly, a reward for taking a popular stand in favour of the deposed judges and constitutionalism. Sharif will have to stick to this agenda, however, if he wants to remain relevant to Pakistan in the future.
The most significant victory was that won by the secular and Pashtun Nationalist Party, the Awami National Party (ANP), in the volatile North West Frontier Province. Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), the religious alliance, stands routed. Its poor governance record, flirting with Musharraf, and internal divisions led to its downfall. ANP’s rise, meanwhile, is a response to the spate of suicide bombings and politics of violence. In the Swat district, which was in the eye of the Islamist militancy storm recently, ANP won comprehensively, establishing that ordinary Pashtuns do not support extremism.
Despite all the positive trends, however — including the success of women candidates — Pakistan’s problems are far from over. It is going to be an uphill task to form a stable, focused and accountable government dedicated to the wellbeing of the people. Developing a consensus among coalition parties in the centre and then sticking to it will be a challenge in itself. In a country where “palace intrigues” (for the most part orchestrated by intelligence services) have historically started fermenting within months of a new administration taking office, the early period will be the most challenging. And violent religious extremism can raise its head at any time — it will not be silenced by the success of liberal and progressive forces.
As for Musharraf, he is living in a fool’s paradise if he thinks he is going to be a father figure to the next prime minister. The new government will be under tremendous pressure to bring back the deposed judges, and that could sound a death knell for his presidency. For the army, which is already distancing itself from Musharraf, institutional interests, saving prestige and influence, will be more important than rescuing a president who continues to shoot himself in the foot. The West must show patience while democratic forces settle — at least as much patience as it showed with military dictators. This is the very least that the people of Pakistan earned this week. — Â