Premier axing sparks turmoil

The imminent sacking of Western Cape Premier Ebrahim Rasool and his Eastern Cape counterpart Nosimo Balindlela has heightened tensions in ANC structures rather than calming them as their supporters and opponents battle for control of provincial government and party structures.

The ANC initially justified a decision by its national executive committee to remove them on the basis of poor service delivery, but this week secretary general Gwede Mantashe appeared to make a partial retreat, telling asset managers in Cape Town that the NEC intervention was premised on ‘political issues”.

Speaking at a briefing arranged by union investment house Nehawu Securities to calm market jitters about political uncertainty, Mantashe said that final decisions on the Eastern and Western Cape would emerge from a process that would take weeks, ‘and by weeks I could mean 52 weeks”, he said. The media, he suggested, had pre-empted the outcome by reporting the NEC decision.

But in both provinces party and government officials are treating the dismissals as a fait accompli and planning the next step.

They want to ensure that additional measures by Luthuli House accommodate their interests to ensure that they win out in internal electoral processes and secure maximum influence in the handover of government departments.

In the Eastern Cape two parallel processes are playing out as opposing factions jockey over potential replacements for Balindlela, while in the Western Cape the scope and duration of the victory of Rasool’s main rival, Mcebisi Skwatsha, is at stake.

In the Western Cape, where Rasool, his key allies and staff are preparing to leave government, there is little debate over his replacement, which will almost certainly be provincial finance and tourism minister Lynne Brown.

When ANC treasurer Matthews Phosa and national chairperson Baleka Mbete met provincial leaders on Monday they requested three nominations for Rasool’s replacement. Provincial chair James Ngculu and others who have backed Rasool declined to put up a list, said one source who was present and three others close to Ngculu and Rasool.

That left the Skwatsha list, designed to ensure that Brown is the only candidate. The other two nominees — health minister Pierre Uys and deputy legislature speaker Yousuf Gabru — have far lower political profiles, while Uys has a National Party background. Who else will feature in a revised provincial cabinet is less clear.

Between three and five cabinet members seen as Rasool loyalists also face the axe. There will be sweeping changes at the top of the provincial bureaucracy, members of Rasool’s staff, provincial ministers and provincial ANC leaders told the Mail & Guardian.

Particularly at risk, said one senior Rasool sympathiser, were economic affairs minister Tasneem Essop, community safety minister Leonard Ramatlakane and education minister Cameron Dugmore.

Local government and housing minister Richard Dyanti and transport and public works minister Marius Fransman are also seen as being in the firing line.

‘It’s about improving delivery,” said one ANC official positioned to influence the process. ‘Obviously there’s a limit to what can be done in the eight months before an election, but there are departments where changes are urgently needed and real progress can be made.”

The changes may include separating the housing and local government portfolios to tackle the Western Cape’s housing crunch. ‘It will be a major reshuffle,” the official said.

Some of Skwatsha’s backers want him to take a Cabinet post; others argue that he and his deputy, Max Ozinsky, should focus on leading the ANC’s election campaign.

Proposing Brown for the premiership is also seen as promoting Skwatsha’s non-racial credentials and rebutting his characterisation as an ‘Africanist”. But if he wins the provincial chairmanship he should be the ANC’s premier candidate, his supporters argue.

They will also use their control of government to continue the assault on Rasool and his allies over governance, which has been conducted in the legislature in the past two years, one minister speculated. An ANC provincial leader confirmed: ‘We’re going to take a very close look at everything.”
To effect rapid changes in how the province does business, there is likely to be a push for numerous resignations in the top ranks of the civil service.

This is particularly true of the premier’s office, where personal loyalties will make it impossible for some staff to work for a new boss, the leader said.

Angry Rasool supporters, including business people and party officials, reject the Cabinet reshuffle as ‘an effort to grab tenders before [they] lose the election”.
But Skwatsha’s backers insist that polling data show the election can be won and he will be the premiership candidate next year.

Both sides are adamant that they must be allowed to stand for the provincial chairmanship at the Western Cape ANC conference and a likely role as premier candidate in 2008/09.

One proposal considered by the NEC, a provincial minister and two party officials said, was that the conference should be cancelled or that neither Rasool, his ally, James Ngculu, nor Skwatsha be allowed to stand.

But it appears that the conference will go ahead, with Skwatsha running for chair and the Rasool/Ngculu camp still deciding their candidate. ‘It could be Ebrahim, James or [MP] Lerumo Kalako,” said one insider.

Two party members sympathetic to the premier warned that Rasool’s sacking will serve as a rallying point for opposition to Skwatsha in the month before the likely August 15 conference date. ANC activists also said they are preparing a petition to protest against Rasool’s sacking and other protests would follow.

‘The national leadership had no idea of the reaction. People are very, very angry,” said one. Said another: ‘Skwatsha controls a small minority of votes; they’re going to be embarrassed.”

How the high emotions that led to Skwatsha’s recent stabbing are to be contained is unclear — although both sides say they will fight a principled battle.

‘Conference must happen, but national leadership will deploy someone senior to make sure that it doesn’t get out of hand,” said one minister.

Battle in the Eastern Cape
In the Eastern Cape a battle is emerging over who should succeed Balindlela. Pitted against one another are the provincial ANC leadership — aligned with Mbeki — and some of the party’s powerful regions, who support ANC president Jacob Zuma.

‘Our initial feeling was that there was no need to reshuffle because we were facing elections and were scared it would debilitate us,” a member of the OR Tambo regional executive committee told the M&G.

‘But then the leadership, including Zuma, came to talk to us, saying it is fundamental for the ANC to come up with something when the voters.