The Movement for Democratic Change has insisted that without the African Union’s involvement, and at least another mediator in addition to President Thabo Mbeki, ”talks about talks” between Zimbabwe’s two largest parties will not go ahead.
Despite reports that Mbeki was to travel to Harare this week to witness the signing of a ”framework agreement” for inter-party discussions, Mbeki’s spokesperson, Mukoni Ratshitanga, confirmed that the trip did not take place.
Zimbabwe’s state media had announced that a deal was close, while Zanu-PF and the two MDC factions were said to be ready to sign on a ”memorandum of engagement” setting the terms for formal dialogue.
But positions changed repeatedly. At one point both sides were said to have dropped all preconditions, while reports from insiders later suggested they remained worlds apart.
On Wednesday the MDC was adamant that Mbeki remained a stumbling block in the mediation.
”We have no confidence in him,” said an MDC spokesperson. ”He wants to create the impression that talks are going ahead before big meetings [such as those of the G8 and United Nations]. He wants to make it look like there is progress.”
Further impediments are self- styled president Robert Mugabe’s demand that the MDC recognise him as Zimbabwe’s legitimate leader and that the MDC denounce Western sanctions.
The MDC has also demanded that all violence stops before talks are held.
According to an official familiar with the process, both sides want the talks to be held as soon as possible and not to be drawn out needlessly.
But both parties realise that they remain poles apart. The two-week timetable initially discussed to finalise a deal is ”far too unrealistic”, the source said.
The source emphasised a further fundamental difference between the parties: the MDC believes a solution lies in discussions leading to a transitional government with a limited mandate and life. At a meeting this week the party and a coalition of its civil society allies decided it should be two years.
In continuing talks during this period the MDC will demand the drafting of a new Constitution and preparations for fresh elections monitored by the United Nations and other international observers, including the Western monitors banned by Mugabe.
By contrast, Mugabe is said to favour a more permanent arrangement that yields some power to the MDC but allows him to see out his five-year term without having to face the electorate.
While Mugabe has expressed openness to talks, he has also been keen to project the view that he can go it alone.
On Wednesday he launched a programme to provide cut-price basic goods to the poor, saying ”we are continuing with our programmes of empowerment, just as we promised our people we would do once they gave us a new mandate to continue serving them”.
But few believe he would risk forming a government on his own. He has ignored a constitutional deadline to swear in the new Parliament and name his Cabinet, a development many have see as a clear indication he is prepared to accommodate the MDC in his new government.
According to legal watchdog Veritas, Parliament should have been sworn in by Tuesday, six months to the day after it was dissolved ahead of the March election. But the group said ”the consequences of non-compliance with the deadline are not spelled out in the Constitution”, a fact that Mugabe’s legal advisers would have known.
Indeed, Mugabe has little room to wriggle out of talks.
Mbeki has kept up the pressure by permanently stationing a team in Harare to drive the process. In addition, Mugabe is keen to shore up shaky regional ties, while being aware that the composition of Parliament — no party has an absolute majority — makes it impossible for him to rule without accommodating the MDC.
There appears to be some agreement, albeit tacit, in Mugabe’s inner circle that they have lost all control of the economy and that a deal with the MDC holds out the best chance of restoring economic stability.
They believe, however, that any political concession will have to come through constitutional amendments which must be passed in a package rather than one by one.
In terms of accommodating MDC leaders in government, Mugabe could be swayed to make concessions. But he will not let go of the two most powerful portfolios, defence and policing.
The deal-breaker for Zanu-PF will be if the Western world slaps further sanctions on the ruling elite. The party also says it will not entertain discussions on the land issue.
The only arrow left in Zanu-PF’s quiver is the ”legality” Mugabe claims by being elected” in the June 27 poll. He refuses to concede that he is negotiating from a weaker position.
At the same time, the MDC has moved away from its earlier challenge that ”those who claim a mandate to rule should go ahead and rule”. It also realises it has little option but to talk.