/ 28 September 2008

Survey: Opposition challenges ANC in urban SA

The ruling African National Congress (ANC) and opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) are neck and neck among urban South Africans ahead of an election due next year, according to a survey in the Sunday Times.

The survey of 1 500 city dwellers — who are more likely to be white and middle class — does not represent broader public opinion, but the paper said it showed rising discontent with the ANC after the ousting of Thabo Mbeki as president of the country.

The ANC has dominated South African politics since the end of apartheid but has been damaged by bitter rivalry between Mbeki and party leader Jacob Zuma, frontrunner to win the presidential election due next year.

In the biggest upheaval of the post-apartheid era, the ANC last week forced Mbeki to resign and appointed Zuma ally Kgalema Motlanthe to replace him as interim president. Investors and some middle-class voters, who favoured Mbeki’s pro-business policies, are worried the ANC under Zuma and Motlanthe will bow to pressure from their communist and trade-union allies to tilt South Africa to the left.

About 26% of those surveyed said they would vote for the DA, a traditionally white party that is trying to boost its black support, if an election were held tomorrow. Twenty-seven percent would vote for the ANC and about 27 percent said they were undecided, the paper reported.

Just over half those surveyed by research group Ipsos Markinor said South Africa was going in the ”wrong direction” and 27% said they would consider emigrating.

The paper, which noted previous polls showed a huge ANC lead in rural areas, said the survey was conducted via telephone and was representative of the minority of South Africans, mostly middle class, with landline phones.

There has been some speculation that supporters of Mbeki could split from the formerly monolithic ANC and start a rival party, though many analysts say this is unlikely.

Zuma dismissed the idea in an interview in the Sunday Independent and said any breakaway party would fail.

”The problem with speculation about what is simply rumours and speculation is that one just adds fuel to the rumour fire,” Zuma was quoted as saying.

”Besides, I’ll tell you one thing that we know from decades of experience — anyone who has left the ANC, for whatever reason, has failed to shine. The ANC is simply bigger than the individuals in it.”

Zuma said on Saturday the ruling party and its allies would ”prove there is no alternative to the ANC”, which was preparing for an ”overwhelming victory” in next year’s elections.

Motlanthe is due to make his first televised speech to the nation on Sunday at 7pm. — Reuters