Way back in 2000, the American internet magazine Slate dubbed President Robert Mugabe a scheming survivor. He had just lost a national referendum, his first defeat in 20 years. But he bounced back. With a bit of arm twisting and panel-beating of the electorate, he won the parliamentary elections four months later.
He repeated the feat this year. He lost the March 29 elections, but he beat the electorate to a pulp, forcing his opponent Morgan Tsvangirai — who had won the first round — to throw in the towel. It seemed a hollow victory then, but it has now secured him legitimate presidency.
Tsvangirai is better known for his resilience and persistence in opposing Mugabe. This started way back in the 1990s when the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU), which was formed at the insistence of Mugabe’s Zanu-PF, broke ranks with the party over the implementation of the Economic Structural Adjustment Programme, which the ZCTU said was going to impoverish the workers. Tsvangirai was beaten, jailed and nearly thrown out of his 10th-floor office, but survived to form the Movement for Democratic Change.
The party almost swept the 2000 parliamentary elections. Tsvangirai gave Mugabe a run for his money in the 2002 presidential elections but his party fizzled out in the 2005 polls. It also split that year, with each faction taking about half the dwindled parliamentary seats the party had won.
But 2008 was totally different. People were fed up with Mugabe because of the deteriorating economic situation. People wanted food on their tables. The only person who could deliver was Tsvangirai. Mugabe had lost credibility totally.
Former finance minister Simba Makoni, who in normal circumstances would have outshone both Mugabe and Tsvangirai, was dumped because his blood was tainted with that of Zanu-PF.
But Mugabe was back to his old tricks. With defeat staring him in the face, Mugabe kept this cool. Slowly but surely he began to weave his way back. Tsvangirai started to break, losing ground by the day until he finally capitulated, allowing Mugabe to win the presidency uncontested.
However, it was clear from as early as March 30 that Mugabe could no longer go it alone. He needed the blessing of the West to obtain money to get the country running again. It was the economy that had cost him the election.
Tsvangirai too needed the support of the security chiefs.
Though seemingly poles apart, the two — together with Arthur Mutambara of the smaller faction of the MDC — agreed to a power-sharing deal on September 15. The agreement gave Tsvangirai the prime minister’s post but was heavily tilted in favour of Zanu-PF and Mugabe. Even the 31-member Cabinet agreed on gave Zanu-PF 15 seats, against Tsvangirai’s 13 and Mutambara’s three.
It looked like a done deal. The internet even circulated a Cabinet heavily in favour of Tsvangirai as early as September 16, but the waiting began.
Mugabe was back to his old tricks. He had learnt that it was easy to wear down Tsvangirai. Once put in a corner, Tsvangirai would become impatient; if provoked, he would burst. That’s exactly what he did last Saturday when Mugabe announced the allocation of Cabinet seats before the three parties had agreed.
There was an outcry. The West and the media quickly rushed to blame Mugabe for scuttling the agreement. But the media started celebrating the collapse of the agreement rather than mourning a lost opportunity. Tsvangirai was on stage announcing that he would pull out.
The trick worked. Mugabe and Tsvangirai were back at the negotiating table three days later, this time earnestly seeking a solution. While the two leaders were publicly posturing as if they did not care whether the deal survived, secretly they have since realised they cannot do without each other.
They are more like sparring partners, sizing each other up, throwing hard punches at each other, but all the time making sure no one gets hurt because they have the same ultimate goal: to get Zimbabwe back on track.
No amount of pessimism will scuttle the September 15 agreement, at least for now. Former South African president Thabo Mbeki, the man behind the deal, knows that too.