African nations, which buy about nine million tonnes of rice a year from Asia, are likely to import the bulk of white rice from Pakistan and Vietnam because of competitive prices.
”In Pakistan the new season has started, their prices are very competitive,” said the head of the rice division at an international trading house.
”With government intervention from Thailand, I think Africa will buy from Pakistan and Vietnam, especially white rice.”
The benchmark Thai rice price is likely to decline from $660 per tonne after the government cut the price it will pay farmers for their paddy rice by nearly 15%, but it is much higher than the other origins.
Pakistan, which is expecting a bumper crop, is quoting non-basmati rice at around $390 to $400 per tonne, while Vietnam is offering a similar variety at $420 per tonne, traders said on the sidelines of a global seminar in Chiang Mai.
African countries, including the top buyers Nigeria and South Africa, are well stocked and are unlikely to tap the international market before December.
”Nigeria is covered for three to four months, they have something like 400 000 to 450 000 tonnes,” said one rice exporter. ”South Africa doesn’t have too much stock at the moment but they would be covered until December.”
Nigeria annually imports 1,2-million tonnes of rice while South Africa buys 700 000 to 800 000 tonnes.
Traders said it was unclear how much would be bought by the African countries in December.
”The reason why people are not buying at the moment is because everybody is very shaky and nervous,” the exporter said.
”If the markets continues to slip down they will buy in small lots, hand-to-mouth.”
Dealers said Africa’s rice imports could range between 80 000 and 300 000 tonnes depending on market volatility.
A continuous slide in freight markets had also made it difficult for buyers to fix prices. The cost of shipping rice from Thailand to West African ports has dropped to $95 per tonne from $125 about a month ago.
Pakistan can ship rice to West Africa at about $70 per tonne, down from $95 last month.
Rice output in top producing nations such as Thailand and Pakistan is likely to rise substantially this year, cooling down the benchmark export price which had leapt to $1,080 per tonne in April on export curbs and panic buying. – Reuters