/ 27 October 2008

Markets tumble on recession fears

Growing fears of recession sent share and oil prices plummeting on Monday as markets shrugged off new moves to protect shell-shocked economies and a Group of Seven (G7) pledge to stabilise the financial system.

As a new survey showed business confidence in Germany, Europe’s number one economy, at its lowest point for more than five years, global efforts to revive spirits showed little sign of working.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) unveiled rescue plans for Ukraine and Hungary, South Korea slashed its key interest rate, Japan announced fresh action to boost its ailing stock market and Australia’s central bank intervened to prop up its currency.

The European Central Bank also announced one-week dollar loans against euro cash as part of its efforts to keep interbank money markets flowing.

And in the United States, a top official said nine major banks would receive $125-billion in capital injections this week from the government.

But the moves failed to restore calm to the markets as Tokyo’s main index hit a 26-year low while Europe’s main stock exchanges nosedived at the start of the trading week and US shares opened weaker.

And on the oil market, Brent crude prices fell below $60 per barrel as traders responded to the potential impact of recession on energy demand.

“After last week’s turmoil in equity markets, many had been hoping that the new week would bring about a degree of stability but … so far there’s little to suggest this will be the case,” said CMC Markets dealer Matt Buckland.

The G7 club of rich nations vowed to cooperate to stabilise the system, and voiced concern about “excessive volatility” in the Japanese yen.

Japan’s Nikkei index plunged 6,36% by the close, hitting the lowest level since October 1982 before the economic bubble.

It was similarly turbulent across Asia. Hong Kong closed 12,2% down and Sydney still closed down 1,6%.

There were also heavy falls in Europe, with London’s FTSE 100 index of top shares diving to a five-year trough as the market continued to digest news that the British economy was on the brink of recession.

Paris shares were down 3,79% in mid-afternoon trade while the DAX in Frankfurt shed 2,23% after steeper falls in earlier trading.

US stocks opened weaker on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average sliding 1,01% to 8 294,52 points but then recovered to inch into positive territory in volatile trade.

The statement by the G7 key economies — Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States — sought to calm nerves by affirming their “shared interest in a strong and stable international financial system”.

‘Serious recession’
In the foreign-exchange markets, the euro dived under $1,24 in early trading, hitting the lowest point for more than two years, after a key index showed business confidence dropped in Germany for the fifth month running.

The monthly business climate index calculated by the economic research institute Ifo fell to 90,2 points in October from 92,9 points in the previous month, its fifth straight drop.

That marked the lowest level since May 2003, when it reached 89,6 points.

“Germany is heading for a serious recession,” warned Bank of America analyst Holger Schmiedling in response to the Ifo data.

“With business confidence declining at a record pace, the economy looks set to shrink noticeably in late 2008 and early 2009.”

The European Central Bank, which cut its main lending rate by 0,50% earlier this month as part of concerted action to avert a collapse in the banking system, indicated a further cut could be on the cards.

“I consider it possible” that the bank will lower its key interest rate at its next meeting on November 6 as it seems like “inflation expectations have diminished”, said ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet.

The US government, which unveiled a $700-billion to bail out banks last month, said $125-billion of that money was now available.

“We executed the agreements for the nine institutions late last night [Sunday] so the money will go out the door for these institutions early this week,” Assistant Treasury Secretary David Nason told CNBC television.

On Sunday, the IMF said it would lend $16,5-billion to Ukraine and would announce a “substantial” package for Hungary in the next few days.

The deals followed a $2,1-billion loan to Iceland and came amid calls for assistance from other countries, including Belarus and Pakistan. — AFP