The ANC’s first provincial election lists indicate that those who strongly supported Jacob Zuma before the party’s Polokwane conference will be favoured to serve in Parliament and provincial legislatures, mostly for the first time.
But the lists, which may change during the regional, provincial and national conferences, also suggest some attempt to accommodate supporters of former president Thabo Mbeki.
Most provinces are heeding a Polokwane resolution that provincial ANC chairs should be premiers — although a few provinces are resisting this.
Cosatu and South African Communist Party leaders also feature prominently on the draft lists.
Gauteng
Premier Paul Mashatile has emerged as the favourite in Gauteng’s initial lists.
Both of his possible opponents – provincial education minister Angie Motshekga and housing minister Nomvula Mokonyane –have been placed on the national list, suggesting they are in line for ministerial or deputy ministerial posts.
Two provincial ministers considered to be Mbeki supporters, Brian Hlongwa (health) and Qedani Mahlangu (local government), are not listed.
But the ANC Youth League in the province, which has not finalised its list, says it will lobby for Motshekga ahead of Mashatile, saying the Gauteng premier should be female.
”How do we allow someone who is known to be close to [former Gauteng premier] Mbhazima Shilowa to be the premier?” asked a league leader.
He said the list being distributed to ANC members in Gauteng represented factional agendas and what the current provincial executive would like to see.
Western Cape
Western Cape Premier Lynne Brown is likely to return as premier candidate, as the ANC focuses on the province it is most worried about losing.
Despite rumours that Brown is warming the premier’s seat for provincial chair Mcebisi Skwatsha, the Mail & Guardian understands she is almost certain to stay put.
”Brown is the only female premier candidate — the ANC will not be so stupid as to remove her,” said a senior provincial source. ”She’s also the only non-African — the other premiers are African males.”
If Brown remains premier Skwatsha might be offered a national minister’s or deputy minister’s position.
With the ANC’s Western Cape branches expected to finalise their lists by mid-January, followers of the pro-Zuma Skwatsha are in pole position.
”They’ll clean up. People who supported Thabo Mbeki will definitely not make it back,” a senior provincial leader said. Likely casualties include former chairperson James Ngculu, former provincial minister Lerumo Kalako and national MP Zou Kota.
North West
Provincial chairperson Nono Maloyi heads the North West list, indicating that he is likely to become the next premier. The current premier, Edna Molewa, leads the national-to-national list.
Curiously, national Deputy Health Minister Molefi Sefularo is on the province-to-province list, suggesting the ANC wants him to remain in the province.
Zuma’s supporters, including Matlosane mayor China Dodovu, SACP provincial secretary Madoda Sambatha, National Union of Mineworkers provincial leader Deon Boqwana and Cosatu provincial secretary Solly Phetoe, are on the national list and could serve their first stint as MPs.
The list also includes former North West social development minister Nikiwe Mangqo and former ANC provincial spokesperson Lolo Mashiane, who have since defected to the Congress of the People (Cope).
But some ANC members said they had heard of plans to make Thandi Modise premier, despite her not appearing on their lists. The ANC denied this.
Limpopo
Despite initial rumours that national executive committee member Maite Nkoana-Mashabane may contest the provincial premiership, Limpopo ANC chairperson Cassel Mathale is a certainty for the job.
Mathale’s prospects were boosted by the Limpopo ANC’s controversial resolution in July — in defiance of national party policy — that he should be the only candidate.
The provincial list includes ANC leaders seen as Mbeki sympathisers, such as provincial health minister Seaparo Sekoati, public works minister Rosina Semenya and ANC regional chair Mopani Humphrey Mokgobi.
Also included are Cosatu’s provincial secretary and deputy secretary Jan Tsiane and Merriam Ramadwa, SACP provincial secretary Soviet Lekganyane, ANCYL provincial chair Lehlogonolo Masoga and ANC veterans George and Joyce Mashamba. Premier Sello Moloto and transport minister Justice Pitso, known Mbeki supporters, are notably absent.
Those seconded from province to national include Nkoana-Mashabane, former Limpopo premier Ngoako Ramathlodi, education minister Aaron Motswaledi and provincial economic development minister Collins Chabane.
Mpumalanga
ANC provincial chair and agriculture minister David Mabuza is the preferred premier candidate, but some provincial executive committee members are understood to be pushing for Mabuza’s deputy, second-placed Charles Makola.
Tensions between their supporters are likely to divide a province considered strongly pro-Zuma.
In an SMS to members this week Mabuza’s supporters described ”emperor” Makola as a liar, sell-out and FBI agent who is destroying the ANC.
But supporters of Mbeki and provincial premier Thabang Makwetla are also listed, including provincial health minister Fish Mahlalela, local government minister Candith Mashego-Dlamini and education minister Mathulare Coleman.
The Cosatu and SACP provincial secretaries, Norman Mokoena and Madala Masuku respectively, also feature high on the list.
Eastern Cape
The ANC’s national leaders would prefer Eastern Cape Premier Mbulelo Sogoni to retain his position to minimise the threat posed by Cope, but Cosatu and the SACP are pushing hard for SACP treasurer and provincial economic affairs minister Phumulo Masualle.
They are trying to win over ANC branches, which are likely to call for a motion of no confidence in the ANC’s Eastern Cape leadership at a provincial general meeting next month and install Masualle as provincial ANC chair, paving the way for him to become premier.
In the Free State, Northern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal the respective Zuma-supporting party chairs — Ace Magashule, John Block and Zweli Mkhize — look certain to become premiers.