/ 10 April 2009

Life after the ruling

Jacob Zuma’s victory this week provided more than legal relief. It was also an important political reaffirmation, which gave him ammunition against sceptics inside his party.

But the dropping of charges against him does not mean the end for the battle for the soul of the ANC or of the jostling over who will succeed him.

The party has invested massive resources in an ANC election victory and in Zuma’s presidency, but had not achieved full consensus that he is a clean enough candidate to lead the government.

The fraud and corruption charges, the rape trial and some of his more controversial comments have always cast doubt and anxiety over his moral authority.

But his supporters in the national executive committee now say the decision by the National Prosecuting Authority ruling will finish off any remaining pro-Thabo Mbeki tendencies in the ANC.

Said one: ”It has eliminated Thabo’s legacy in the ANC. Those who thought they would remain in the party only to stage a surprise move against Zuma later have nothing now.

”In our door-to-door campaigns no ordinary people raise this issue. Instead, people have raised the behaviour of Julius Malema, saying he is disrespectful.

”Of course the hardened conservative supporters of [the] DA and the Freedom Front will come out in anger on April 22. But for the rest, many people have long decided who to vote for.”

But this is not the only view. Another insider said the NPA’s decision could be equated with Bulelani Ngcuka’s infamous statement that, although there was a prima-facie case against Zuma, it was not winnable.

”This is because the prosecutor’s last words on the matter is that they still had a strong case — and people will always use that against Zuma.

”However, for the core of ANC supporters they will not be moved by the so-called cloud [hanging over him].”

Nevertheless, the battle for the ANC will continue inside the party. An ANC veteran sympathetic to Mbeki told the Mail & Guardian that the concern about Zuma’s leadership had always been about the many opportunistic elements surrounding him.

”I think the battle to wrest control of the ANC from these people will continue. Some people have left for Cope but others prefer to soldier on inside the party. People who want to line themselves up for [the next ANC congress] in 2012 won’t stop,” he said.

The 2012 battle is fuelled by Zuma’s own remarks that he will be a one-term president who will make way for someone else after elections in 2014.

One of Zuma’s aides said it would be unwise for the ANC to go through a divisive Polokwane-type experience in 2012 so soon after that divided congress, implying that Zuma could be asked to serve another term.

Those seen as possible successors include the current deputy president of the party, Kgalema Motlanthe, national chairperson Baleka Mbete, and NEC member and Zuma confidante Lindiwe Sisulu. Those with an outside chance include treasurer Mathews Phosa and businessman Tokyo Sexwale.