The Bulls will know by about 11.30am on Friday what they have to do the following day against the Sharks in Durban to head the Super 14 log for a home semifinal and possible home final.
The Chiefs, a single log point behind the Bulls, who have 42, have to take five points from their Friday match against the Brumbies (kick-off 9.35am, South African time) to overtake the Bulls — and then also rely on their (very healthy) points difference to top the log on condition that the Bulls then don’t get a fiver against the Sharks.
If the Bulls get five points, they’re home and dry.
The Chiefs should win the match against the Brumbies in Hamilton. The Brumbies have been good and average all season, and despite their 37-15 win over the Blues last weekend, they will travel to New Zealand as the underdogs.
They were at home in Canberra last weekend, and the listless Blues had one of their worst outings of the season.
The Brumbies’ win should be seen in that perspective. What could make them a dangerous obstacle, however, is the outside chance that they could still sneak into the top four.
The Brumbies have to win, preferably collect five log points, and then rely on a number of permutations to overtake one of the Crusaders, Hurricanes or Sharks. Even the Chiefs could be overhauled and the Bulls tied, depending on other results.
The Bulls will, as a first prize, hope the Chiefs are beaten; or that they win without a bonus point and then, should they get five log points from the game, that they win by a small margin.
In the latter instance, the Bulls will have to beat the Sharks by 34 points (that is as the log now stands and will obviously increase if the Chiefs win).
The Chiefs have only the single blemish against the Bulls two weeks ago in their last eight matches. They are tough up front, and have a new patience which has been absent over the years.
They used that to good effect in beating the Hurricanes last weekend in a tough encounter where little was seen of the two sets of backs.
The Chiefs also know they dare not slip against a lesser Brumbies who remain a serious obstacle. A loss to the Brumbies could see the Hurricanes get the home semifinal — and there is the reality that even the Brumbies could still overtake the Chiefs.
In Friday’s other match, the Lions play the Waratahs in Johannesburg. The visitors also have a small chance to make the playoffs and will go flat out for a big five-point win.
With the exception of last week’s match in Durban against the Sharks, the Waratahs have not been in great form recently, but their motivation brought on by a possible semifinal place could see them through against a side that won on merit but were everything but impressive except in short spurts against the Highlanders last weekend. — Sapa