Consumer confidence retreated modestly in the third quarter of 2009, according to the FNB/Bureau of Economic Research consumer confidence index released on Wednesday.
During the third quarter of the year, the index decreased by 3 points, from +4 during the second quarter of the year to +1.
”The current level of the index can be described as a neutral level of confidence,” FNB said.
Although a reading of +1 indicated that there were somewhat more optimists than pessimists, the latest reading was marginally below the long-term average index reading of +2, FNB added.
The consumer confidence index was based on three questions, namely the expected performance of the economy, the expected financial situation of households and the rating of the appropriateness of the present time to buy durable goods (such as furniture, appliances, electronic equipment, and motor vehicles).
During the third quarter of 2009, all three of the index’s sub-indices deteriorated.
The economic performance component of the index saw the largest decline falling by six index points to +11 during the period under review.
The net percentage of consumers’ expecting their own finances to improve declined by two index points (+17 to +15) during the third quarter of this year, while the net percentage of consumers rating the present as an inappropriate time to buy durable goods went from -21 to -23.
”Although consumers’ rating of all three sub-components of the index deteriorated during the third quarter of 2009, consumers can still be regarded as relatively optimistic about the outlook for the South African economy and their own household finances 12 months hence,” FNB said.
In contrast to the index question regarding the appropriateness of the present time to buy durable goods, the questions regarding the expected economic performance and outlook for household finances were forward-looking.
”Consumers’ expectations that the domestic economy and their own financial positions will improve in twelve months’ time is compatible with those of most economists, many of who also expect an uptick in economic growth following a particularly sharp contraction during the first half of 2009,” Cees Bruggemans, chief economist of First National Bank, said.
The two index point decline in the time to buy durable goods index brought this sub-index down to a nine-year low of -23 index points, suggesting that households still regard the present time to buy durable goods as being highly inappropriate, Bruggemans added.
”More broadly, this result also signifies that consumers have shifted to a more cautionary mode — although the prime interest rate has now been cut by a cumulative 500 basis points and a number of banks have announced an easing in their credit criteria, this relatively more prudent stance of consumers may keep the lid on sales of big ticket items in the near term.”
Bruggemans said that a breakdown of the survey results in terms of income groups revealed diverging results, and shed some light on why consumer confidence declined during the third quarter of this year.
”Whereas the confidence levels of high income earners increased from +1 to +5, low income confidence plunged from +7 to -4.”
He explained that high income earners were probably taking heart from the reported rebound in world economic growth, share prices trending higher, a further interest rate cut and news that banks had started to ease their lending criteria.
”At +5 index points, high income confidence is now slightly above the long-term average reading for the high income consumer confidence index of +2.”
However, similar to the results for the overall index,
Bruggemans said high income earners were still pessimistic about the present time to buy durable goods and could only be considered optimistic about the forward looking indicators, namely the outlook for the economy and their own finances 12 months hence.
In sharp contrast, low income earners made a substantial downward adjustment to their rating of all three questions in the consumer confidence survey, he said.
”At -4 index points, low income confidence is well below the long-term average reading for the low income consumer confidence index (also +2).
”The deterioration in consumer sentiment among low income households during the third quarter of 2009 can probably be ascribed to mounting evidence of job losses in the domestic economy, shorter working hours and a decline in overtime remuneration and sharp increases in electricity and fuel prices,” Bruggemans noted.
He said that according to the Quarterly Labour Force Survey by Statistics South Africa, 208 000 South Africans lost their jobs during the first quarter of 2009, and a further 267 000 jobs were eliminated during the second quarter of this year.
The rate of contraction was particularly severe among private households (for example domestic workers) and in the agriculture and informal sectors, where job losses totalled 174 000 during the second quarter of 2009.
Apart from the contraction in employment, Statistics South Africa also noted a dramatic 24,9% increase in the number of discouraged workers during the second quarter, as individuals gave up hope of finding work or felt that there were no jobs in the area which they lived that matched their skills, Bruggemans said.
”Given the fact that 65% of the total job losses during the second quarter of 2009 took place among private households (as employers) and in the agriculture and informal sectors, combined with the higher level of discouragement among the unemployed, it is not surprising that low income confidence took such a beating during the third quarter of this year,” Bruggemans added.
Furthermore, since low income households spent a relatively large proportion of their monthly income on electricity and transport costs, the sharp increases in petrol and electricity prices during the third quarter were likely to depress this group in particular, he observed.
Finally, low-income consumers had limited exposure to the stock market and lower levels of indebtedness, implying that the recent resurgence of share prices on the JSE and interest rate reductions would have had a relatively smaller positive impact on low-income consumers, Bruggemans added.
The deterioration in the confidence levels of the low income group (that is. the mass consumer market) did not bode well for consumer spending on non-durable goods (for example, food, beverages and groceries).
According to Bruggemans, whereas high food prices weighed heavily on non-durable goods sales volumes during 2008, it appeared as though job losses would be the downfall of this category during 2009.
Bruggemans said that according to the Quarterly Bulletin of the South African Reserve Bank, total consumer spending contracted by 3,6% year-on-year during the second quarter, down from a 1,8% year-on-year contraction in the first quarter of this year, with the durable goods category taking the most strain.
”Although a number of leading indicators now suggest that the real economy probably bottomed during the second or third quarter of 2009, the latest consumer confidence survey results show that consumers are still in precautionary mode,” Bruggemans noted.
This was evident both from the current level of the consumer confidence index (a reading of +1 has historically been associated with pedestrian growth in consumer spending) and the fact that the vast majority of consumers still considered the present time as inappropriate to purchase durable goods.
”This suggests that, even if household income starts to improve, the recovery in consumer spending is likely to be slow, as some consumers are likely to favour saving rather than spending,” Bruggemans said. — Sapa