A few days from now, on January 20, Barack Obama will start his second year on the job. When he shaves that morning, he might well look at that fellow in the mirror and ask: all right, then, what have you learned? Let’s try five important lessons.
First, that the Republican party is and will remain in a state of permanent political warfare against him. When the memoirs come out many years from now, we will read about how shocked Obama was at the GOP’s igneous resistance to anything he wanted to do. It’s surprised me too. It’s not that he or I expected the Republicans just to be nice people or patsies. It’s that a handful of them in the Senate and the House of Representatives represent states or districts that Obama won, which in past contexts would have meant these legislators — three or four in the Senate, 15 or so in the House — would be willing to play ball. That isn’t how the GOP works any more.
Second, that his own party’s legislators aren’t anxious to do him any huge favours. You have a parliamentary system in Britain in which a party acts like … a party. Unified. Our GOP acts that way, because of its comparative ideological homogeneity. The Democrats do not, and will not. Of many extreme cases, the most egregious is probably a usually none too influential congressman from Michigan named Bart Stupak. He opposes abortion rights and is holding his vote for healthcare reform hostage to demands that will result in the pro-abortion rights party passing a huge law that will in fact impose new restrictions on funding for abortions. But the Democrats need his vote, and so he can dictate such terms.
Third, that the liberal base will not have his back through thick and thin. There is some justification for anger on the left. When Obama speaks publicly about the importance of a public insurance option in the health Bill, as he did last fall, while aides are privately telling legislators and lobbyists that the public option is negotiable, as some were last fall, that properly invites resentment. And yet it’s also true that liberal activists are far too impatient — and in some cases willing and almost eager to indulge their own cynicism about the Democratic party and the US system.
Fourth, that voters in the middle have remained doubtful of liberalism and distrustful that the government can do anything good in their lives.
Obama’s sweeping victory over John McCain was not, as I’ve written many times, an endorsement from voters for a strong swing back to the left. It was a rejection of conservatism, but not an embrace of liberalism. Those voters are more sceptical today than they were a year ago, and this is a serious problem.
Fifth, that the American political media no longer do much of a job of living up to the lofty projects of telling the hard truths, holding public servants accountable, being the people’s eyes and ears.
The political media, for the most part, egg on and referee food fights, and arbitrate a capricious conventional wisdom. As declining revenues put more and more pressure on media for eyeballs and ratings and hits, this will increase. Media history over the long arc is far from glorious, but there was a period, from the 1950s through the 1980s, when civic responsibility was more central to American political journalism. That has diminished and will continue to do so.
That’s a fairly long shave, and one that risks more than a few nicks and cuts. But these are the five not so easy pieces that Obama has to try to arrange into a coherent governing strategy.
In his first year, Obama didn’t manage any of these especially adroitly. After healthcare passes, assuming it does, he and his White House need to show they’ve learned from the mistakes. He’s still not in bad shape — 50% approval, about to sign historic legislation. But things are still so bad in the country — the economy and the dysfunctional political culture — that the sense is he is just holding his nose above the water line.
Year two has to end with him being seen as having taken more direct charge over events. The economy has to be front and centre, and he can’t let Congress call as many shots as he did with healthcare. He took the reins of this job at a terrible time, when things were as bad in the US as they’ve been in decades. He spent a year trying to do things cooperatively. The system has proven mostly uncooperative. Now it’s up to him. It is he voters will judge, as the man in that mirror surely knows all too well. – guardian.co.uk